Japan election: Sanae Takaichi’s ruling conservatives on course for landslide win | Japan

Japan’s conservative ruling party is on track to significantly strengthen its grip on power in what is seen as early public support for new prime minister Sanae Takaichi after exit polls predicted a landslide victory in Sunday’s election.

According to the exit poll by public broadcaster NHK, the Liberal Democratic party (LDP) was expected to win 274 to 328 seats out of a total of 465; This was well above the 233 seats it needed to regain the majority it lost in 2024. NHK predicted a supermajority for the LDP and its junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, which would facilitate Takaichi’s legislative agenda.

The lower house elections were held on a freezing day when many parts of the country were again hit by heavy snowfall.

Takaichi, who called for early elections shortly after becoming Japan’s first female prime minister last fall, vowed to resign if her coalition failed to secure an absolute majority.

But it won’t be long before he can enjoy his party’s victory. There are concerns about Japan’s management of public finances and its ability to resolve a bitter dispute with China over the future of Taiwan.

Takaichi sought to appeal to voters with a $135 billion stimulus package aimed at easing the cost-of-living crisis, and later promised to suspend the 8% consumption (sales) tax on food for two years; This dealt a ¥5 trillion ($30 billion) hit to annual revenue.

Spending plans shook financial markets and led to currency fluctuations; Given that Japan’s debt is more than twice its GDP (the heaviest debt burden among advanced economies), it has led some commentators to question his approach.

Stating that the exit polls showed that his party was moving towards victory, Takaichi said: “We have constantly emphasized the importance of responsible and proactive fiscal policy. We will prioritize the sustainability of fiscal policy. We will provide the necessary investments. The public and private sectors must invest. We will build a strong and durable economy.”

After a whirlwind foray into diplomacy, including meetings with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping late last year, Takaichi opened a row with Beijing in November by suggesting Japan might intervene militarily if China attempted to invade Taiwan.

Citing “security concerns”, China has urged tourists not to visit Japan – they heeded advice – and urged young people not to study there. The dispute disrupted cultural exchanges and even put an end to decades of “panda diplomacy.”

Takaichi’s refusal to retract his remarks may have angered Beijing, but it pleased many voters.

Margarita Estévez-Abe, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, said Sunday’s election victory could give Takaichi room to repair the damage to China-Japan ties.

“He no longer has to worry about any elections until 2028, when the next upper house elections will be held,” Estévez-Abe said. “So the best-case scenario for Japan is for Takaichi to take a deep breath and focus on repairing relations with China.”

However, according to some analysts, if the consumption tax continues to cut, the market reaction could be swift and hostile.

“If Takaichi wins big, he will have more political space to deliver on his major commitments, including consumption tax cuts,” said Seiji Inada, managing director of consultancy FGS Global. “Markets may react in the coming days and the yen could come under pressure again.”

Snowstorm conditions in some areas made visiting the polls an endurance test for many voters in Sunday’s election, the first election held in the middle of winter in 35 years.

Kazushige Cho, a 54-year-old teacher, said he was determined to vote LDP despite the bad weather. “He has shown strong leadership and is pushing various policies forward,” Cho said outside a polling station in a small town in Niigata prefecture, where snow depth reached more than 2 meters deep. “I think things could turn out pretty well.”

Weather conditions expected to contribute to low attendance caused widespread disruption on Sunday, halting services on dozens of train lines and canceling 230 domestic flights, according to the transport ministry.

According to the news of the Nikkei business newspaper based on the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the participation rate was 21.6% four hours before the polls closed, and the Nikkei business newspaper stated that it was 2.65 percentage points lower than the same time of the 2024 lower house elections.

Takaichi’s personal popularity – especially among young voters – has transformed the LDP’s fortunes since he won the race to replace Shigeru Ishiba as the party’s chairman in October.

Under Ishiba, the LDP and its then-coalition partner Komeito lost their majorities in both houses of parliament due to the slush fund scandal and public anger over the rising costs of food and other basic necessities.

As in previous elections, the party that has ruled Japan for most of the last 70 years has been aided by a fragmented and lackluster opposition.

The main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, founded weeks ago by the two existing parties, was expected to suffer heavy losses on Sunday, leaving question marks about its future.

The final count won’t be known until late Sunday. If the coalition led by Takaichi wins an absolute majority with 261 seats, it will control parliamentary committees and make it easier to pass the budget and other laws.

The 310-seat supermajority would allow the coalition to override the upper house, where the LDP-led alliance lost its majority in July last year.