‘No Delhi, no Islamabad’: Why Tarique Rahman’s rise to power in Bangladesh sets off alarm bells in India | World News

New Delhi: Following the landslide victory in the recently concluded general elections, the rise of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its president Tarique Rahman has attracted the attention of New Delhi; Many campaign themes and political signals from Dhaka point to a recalibration in regional equations.

From the very beginning of the campaign, the party envisaged a sovereignty-first political line. The central slogan placed national interests above all external tendencies. In the message, it was emphasized that Bangladesh will not position itself under the shadow of any foreign capital. The reference included both New Delhi and Islamabad. This demonstrated alleged independence from Indian influence and distance from Pakistan’s military establishment.

During a rally in Sylhet in January, Rahman evoked the memory of the 1971 Liberation War and described the birth of the country as the result of the sacrifices of ordinary Bangladeshis. He reminded his supporters of the magnitude of the human cost that led to the country’s independence.

He then referenced religion while addressing the crowd, asking a series of faith-based questions about who has ultimate authority over the earth, the heavens and the holy places. The crowd responded in unison, giving the meeting a clearly religious tone. The political messages that followed showed that sovereignty and faith would be the pillars of his party’s politics.

The speech had layered signals. The mention of Islamabad meant that his administration would not rely on Pakistan’s military axis. The reference to New Delhi suggested that its policy decisions would not operate under any alleged Indian influence. Religious references reflected the continuing importance of Islamic identity in the BNP’s political lexicon.

Campaign rhetoric often carries a high emotional charge. Even so, it gives an idea of ​​the broad direction a government can take once in office. Some of Rahman’s pre-election statements caught India’s attention, especially on unresolved bilateral issues.

One of the most important points of friction between the two countries is Teesta river water sharing. BNP leaders cited international water agreements while advocating fair distribution. The party argued that previous bilateral arrangements should be reviewed to ensure justice in Bangladesh’s interests.

The BNP chief, in his media speeches, said that several agreements signed during former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s tenure were unbalanced and corrections were needed to reset ties on equal footing. His stated priority put Bangladesh’s national interests and the welfare of its citizens at the forefront before any expansion of external partnerships.

A functional relationship with India is important for any government in Dhaka. Bangladesh is geographically surrounded by Indian territory on three sides. The two countries share a land border that stretches nearly 2,500 miles, one of the longest borders in the world. India is a major trading partner and source of key imports including cotton, food grains, fuel, industrial inputs and electricity.

Another sensitive dimension affecting public perception is India’s decision to host Hasina after she left political power. Political observers say some sections of Bangladesh’s youth view this move negatively. This perception has fed a narrative in Bangladesh that India is too close to the old ruling order (Awami League), even during periods of domestic unpopularity.

Debate over India’s approach intensified during Bangladesh’s 2023 election cycle, as questions were raised internationally about electoral conditions. Critics in Bangladesh felt that New Delhi continued its support for Hasina’s administration despite growing domestic discontent.

Some leaders in the BNP ranks have publicly downplayed India’s historic role in the liberation of Bangladesh. Statements from senior leaders described the struggle for independence as primarily a domestic success rather than a shared military outcome. Such statements increased uneasiness in Indian policy circles.

Hasina’s continued presence in India creates diplomatic sensitivity for both sides. There are demands for his extradition in Bangladesh’s political discourse. Leaders associated with the new power structure stated that the request would be followed through official channels.

Personal political history also affects competition. Rahman’s mother and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia spent a long time in prison during Hasina’s rule when her health deteriorated. The legacy of this political conflict continues to influence party attitudes.

Academic and geopolitical observers see the election result as a turning point in Dhaka’s regional positioning. They expect the new government to articulate a defined foreign policy stance driven by South Asia’s deep-rooted rivalries. India-Pakistan hostility and Sino-India rivalry are expected to continue to be structural factors affecting Bangladesh’s strategic calculations.

It is also acknowledged that India has experience working with BNP-led governments. Diplomatic channels between the two sides had also worked in previous political phases. With the election now concluded, participation will move from speculation to practice.

Strategic analysts expect Bangladesh to maintain working relations with India while maintaining broader policy space. The expected approach points to a calibrated interaction based on mutual respect, sovereign equality and non-interference in domestic politics, as well as giving room to Dhaka’s independent geopolitical preferences.

Historical experience influences current action. Following the restoration of democracy in the early 1990s, India initially expected relations to improve under BNP rule. Initial exchanges, including high-level visits and trade talks, created optimism. This momentum slowed following India’s allegations that rebel groups were being given asylum across the border. Progress on water sharing and demarcation was limited. As a result, insecurity increased during previous BNP governments supported by Jamaat-e-Islami.

Internal political currents in India also affected the bilateral atmosphere. Some sections of the Bangladeshi public think that New Delhi supports the Awami League leadership. Hasina’s ongoing political messages from Indian soil further strengthened this perception.

The regional diplomatic space around Bangladesh has become more competitive. Pakistan has taken action to revive strategic outreach. The US and China have also expanded their engagement footprint following the political transition in Bangladesh.

For India, the emergence of a more assertive opposition bloc within the Bangladesh parliament adds another variable. Islamist and conservative political forces improved their electoral performance. Stronger legislatures can influence the ideological direction of national politics and put pressure on a centrist line of government.

The coming months will reveal how campaign rhetoric translates into state policy. India and Bangladesh are connected by geography, trade and security. Political messages from Dhaka indicate a quest for greater strategic autonomy. The practical management of this passion will determine the next stage of bilateral relations.