Gorton and Denton byelection campaign hits final day with new poll saying it is too close to call who will win – UK politics live | Politics
Gorton and Denton by-election campaign heads into final day with new poll saying it’s close to determining who will win
Good morning. It’s the last full day of campaigning in the Gorton and Denton byelections and a new poll is out; This suggests that the vote is very close and the Green Party, Labor and UK Reform Party have a good chance of winning.
The data is a little more specific than that. Opinium conducted the survey For Byline Times and Forward Democracy, and the figures show a tug of war among all voters (Greens and Labor 28%, Reform UK 27%), but the Greens (30%) are narrowly ahead of Labor and Reform UK (both 28%) among likely voters.
This is the second poll to show the Greens marginally ahead. One Omnisis survey By the end of last week, the Greens had 33%, Reform England 29% and Labor 26%. But constituency polls can be very volatile and most of these clues are within the margin of error, so the only reliable inference about the outcome is that it is very close to call.
But there is another takeaway that is reliable. In what has traditionally been a safe Labor seat, there are two competing rebel challenger parties. We are used to byelections where an outside party performs well, but here Reform UK and the Greens are the potential winners. This is proof that the two-party system has completely collapsed and that we have now entered the era of multi-party politics.
There is another seemingly solid finding in the Opinium survey. Adam Bienkov reports His article for Byline Times:
Poll shows tactical voting With anti-reform voters more likely to switch to the Greens rather than Labour, it could easily swing the contest.
Nearly two-thirds (66%) of Labor and Liberal Democrat voters surveyed said they would be prepared to switch to the Greens if they were the party most likely to beat Reform, while just 41% of Green and Liberal Democrat voters said they would switch to Labor to beat Farage’s party.
Commenting on the survey, Head of Policy and Public Affairs James Crouch Opinionin question:
The Gorton and Denton byelection is shaping up to be an incredibly tight and unpredictable three-way race; This latest poll also suggests the Greens could benefit more than Labor from tactical voting in the final days of the campaign.
We will hear more about this at PMQs.
Here is the agenda of the day.
Afternoon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.
Afternoon: Chancellor Rachel Reeves on a visit to talk about Ofgem’s price cap announcement.
And the government is publishing the courts and tribunals bill today.
If you would like to contact me, please send a message below the line or send a message on social media during comments open hours (between 10:00 – 15:00). I can’t read all messages BTL, but if you type “Andrew” in a message addressed to me, I’m more likely to see it because I’m looking for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something urgently, it’s best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has stopped posting from their official account on
I find it very helpful for readers to point out errors, even minor typos. No mistake is too small to be corrected. I also find your questions very interesting. I can’t promise to respond to them all, but I will try to respond as much as I can, either on BTL or sometimes on the blog.
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Annual energy bills for millions of households will drop by £117 from April, after Rachel Reeves’ plan to cut £150 a year from bills was partially blocked by rising costs. Jillian Ambrose reports.
Gorton and Denton by-election campaign heads into final day with new poll saying it’s close to determining who will win
Good morning. It’s the last full day of campaigning in the Gorton and Denton byelections and a new poll is out; This suggests that the vote is very close and the Green Party, Labor and UK Reform Party have a good chance of winning.
The data is a little more specific than that. Opinium conducted the survey For Byline Times and Forward Democracy, and the figures show a tug of war among all voters (Greens and Labor 28%, Reform UK 27%), but the Greens (30%) are narrowly ahead of Labor and Reform UK (both 28%) among likely voters.
This is the second poll to show the Greens marginally ahead. One Omnisis survey By the end of last week, the Greens had 33%, Reform England 29% and Labor 26%. But constituency polls can be very volatile and most of these clues are within the margin of error, so the only reliable inference about the outcome is that it is very close to call.
But there is another takeaway that is reliable. In what has traditionally been a safe Labor seat, there are two competing rebel challenger parties. We are used to byelections where an outside party performs well, but here Reform UK and the Greens are the potential winners. This is proof that the two-party system has completely collapsed and that we have now entered the era of multi-party politics.
There is another seemingly solid finding in the Opinium survey. Adam Bienkov reports His article for Byline Times:
Poll shows tactical voting With anti-reform voters more likely to switch to the Greens rather than Labour, it could easily swing the contest.
Nearly two-thirds (66%) of Labor and Liberal Democrat voters surveyed said they would be prepared to switch to the Greens if they were the party most likely to beat Reform, while just 41% of Green and Liberal Democrat voters said they would switch to Labor to beat Farage’s party.
Commenting on the survey, Head of Policy and Public Affairs James Crouch Opinionin question:
The Gorton and Denton byelection is shaping up to be an incredibly tight and unpredictable three-way race; This latest poll also suggests the Greens could benefit more than Labor from tactical voting in the final days of the campaign.
We will hear more about this at PMQs.
Here is the agenda of the day.
Afternoon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.
Afternoon: Chancellor Rachel Reeves on a visit to talk about Ofgem’s price cap announcement.
And the government is publishing the courts and tribunals bill today.
If you would like to contact me, please send a message below the line or send a message on social media during comments open hours (between 10:00 – 15:00). I can’t read all messages BTL, but if you type “Andrew” in a message addressed to me, I’m more likely to see it because I’m looking for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something urgently, it’s best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has stopped posting from their official account on
I find it very helpful when readers point out errors, even minor typos. No mistake is too small to be corrected. I also find your questions very interesting. I can’t promise to answer them all, but I will try to answer as much as I can, either on BTL or sometimes on the blog.
