UK leader Starmer faces an electoral test after Epstein fallout shakes his grip on power
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer narrowly escaped this month as the fallout over the Jeffrey Epstein files shook his leadership and threatened to topple him.
He faces new danger this week from a special election in northwest England to be held on Thursday; here the centre-left Labor Party could be defeated by the hardline anti-immigrant party Reform UK or the self-styled “eco-populist” Green Party. Losing to either would remind Labor members how unpopular the prime minister is among voters on both the left and the right.
The elections will be held in Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester, which have been Labor turf for a century. But Labour’s chances have fallen so far that Rob Ford, a political science professor at the University of Manchester, said Starmer’s party’s victory would be treated as a surprise “man-bites-dog” result when the results were announced early on Friday.
A three-way race
Local polling and betting markets show a close three-way contest between Labour’s local councilor Angeliki Stogia, Reform UK challenger Matthew Goodwin (academic-turned-professional) and Greens plumber Hannah Spencer.
The anti-immigration Reform UK, led by veteran far-right politician Nigel Farage, holds just eight of the 650 seats in the House of Commons – Labor has 404 – but has been leading national opinion polls for months, ahead of both Labor and the main opposition Conservative Party.
The Green Party has only four seats, but under energetic leader Zack Polanski, it has moved beyond environmental concerns to focus on issues such as support for the Palestinian cause and drug legalization.
The outcome of the election is difficult to predict in a diverse area with traditionally working-class neighborhoods (once Labor strong, now leaning towards Reform) as well as large numbers of university students and Muslim residents. Many feel disappointed by Labour’s centrist shift under Starmer and the government’s slowness to criticize Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
This makes it fertile ground for the Green Party. Spencer said a Greens win would “send shockwaves through the political order”.
Starmer hit out at the Greens’ drug policies on Wednesday and urged voters to back Labor to counter the “hate and divisiveness” of Reform.
The contest partly reflects the challenge from populist upstarts facing mainstream parties around the world.
However, some of Starmer’s problems stem from himself.
The British leader has endured a series of setbacks since leading Labor to a landslide election victory in July 2024. He struggled to deliver the economic growth he promised, repair broken public services, and ease living costs. He promised a return to honest government after 14 years of Conservative government that ended in scandals and chaos but was beset by missteps and U-turns over welfare cuts and other unpopular policies.
The poor performance sparked discontent among Labor MPs, which led to a crisis last month when the former UK ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson, was exposed in a trove of Jeffrey Epstein files released by authorities in the US.
Police are investigating emails that suggest Mandelson passed sensitive government information to Epstein fifteen years ago. Mandelson was arrested and questioned by detectives before being released on bail this week. He is not facing any sexual abuse allegations.
Starmer under pressure
Starmer fired Mandelson in September 2025 after evidence emerged that the ambassador had maintained a friendship with Epstein following his 2008 conviction for sexual offenses involving a minor.
The recent revelations have reignited Labor MPs’ anger over Starmer’s poor decision to appoint Mandelson to the Washington post, prompting some to call for his resignation. After the Scottish Labor leader joined those calls earlier this month, Starmer’s chief of staff and communications director resigned, leaving his premiership on the brink.
Starmer vowed to keep fighting and received a reprieve after potential leadership rivals publicly backed him. But its position is still unstable.
If Labor loses on Thursday, Starmer will face questions about why the party blocked the candidacy of Andy Burnham, the popular Labor mayor of Manchester. Burnham is seen as a potential leadership rival to Starmer.
The loss would also strengthen those who argue that the government’s efforts to win over “Reform” voters with policies to curb immigration have alienated many liberal Labor voters.
The next national election is not due to be held until 2029, meaning the real threat to Starmer comes from his own party.
Ford said Labor’s narrow victory in Gorton and Denton would “give him a reprieve” but Starmer still faces danger following May 7 elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and local councils in England, where Labor is expected to perform poorly.
“We’ll see if the (special election) result will make them panic for a challenge now, or if they will bide their time and mount a challenge in May — which will probably be even scarier,” Ford said.
