Tight California governor’s race between five leading candidates
The race to replace outgoing California Gov. Gavin Newsom is a tight race among five candidates, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
According to one nonpartisan outlet, three Democrats (former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and hedge fund founder Tom Steyer) and two Republicans (conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco) are within 4 percentage points of each other. Public Policy Institute of California research.
“With three months until the June primaries, the top two spots in the governor’s race are up for grabs,” PPIC poll director Mark Baldassare said in a statement. “Voters feel pressured by cost-of-living realities, so affordability will be a defining issue for them.”
In a crowded field of a dozen leading candidates, Hilton had the support of 14% of likely voters, Porter 13%, Bianco 12%, Swalwell 11% and Steyer 10%, according to the poll. No other candidate received the support of more than 5 percent of those surveyed. One in every 10 voters was undecided.
The two candidates who receive the most votes in the June primaries will advance to the general election, regardless of their party identity. The presence of nine leading Democrats in the field has raised concerns among party leaders that Democratic candidates could split the vote and leave two Republicans on the November ballot. No Republican has been elected to statewide office in California since 2006.
While support for Hilton and Bianco has remained steady since PPIC’s December poll, support for Porter and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has declined significantly as more Democrats have joined the contest and Porter has dealt with the fallout from videos of him swearing at an aide and berating a reporter. Porter expressed regret for his behavior.
Many other races will emerge in the November vote, especially congressional contests that will determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives. The state’s 52 congressional districts were redrawn in a rare mid-decade redistricting after voters approved Proposition 50 last year to counter President Trump’s calls for Republican leaders in Texas and other GOP-led states to reshape congressional lines.
Voters in California are overwhelmingly likely to prefer a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican candidate (62 percent to 36 percent), according to the poll. A proposal for a 5% tax on billionaires’ assets, which would largely be used to fund health care in the state, was also supported by 6 in 10 likely voters.
The PPIC survey surveyed 1,657 California adults online in English and Spanish from February 3-11. The results are estimated to have a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points in both directions for the overall sample and larger numbers for subgroups.
