Starmer faces an anxious wait as polls close in Gorton and Denton by-election with Reform and Greens both hoping to deliver another blow to the PM

Sir Keir Starmer faces an anxious wait after polls close tonight in the Gorton and Denton byelection.

The Prime Minister fears another devastating loss for Labor as both Reform England and the Green Party have high hopes of winning the Greater Manchester seat.

Labor won Gorton and Denton by more than half the vote in the 2024 general election, but polls showed Thursday’s by-election was a three-way race.

Labour’s defeat will lead to fresh speculation about Sir Keir’s future as Prime Minister, whose premiership has been decimated by the Peter Mandelson scandal.

But a victory could give Sir Keir some breathing room to stabilize his faltering administration ahead of local elections in May.

A Reform win would be another major breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s party, further increasing its number of MPs following the recent high-profile Conservative Party exit.

It will also build on Reform’s victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-elections in May last year, when the party ousted a significant majority from Labour.

Meanwhile, the Greens hope to show they can mount a serious left-wing challenge to Labor under the leadership of new ‘eco-populist’ leader Zack Polanski.

As the polls closed on Thursday night, the party’s political leader in the by-election, Labor MP Andrew Western, appeared to be trying to dampen prospects for success.

‘By-elections are always difficult for incumbent governments and this time was no different,’ he said.

Mr Polanski was more optimistic about his own party’s chances, telling Sky News: ‘I’m pretty sure we’re in first or second place and I think that’s pretty incredible.

‘If the weather is right then I think we can achieve it, I’m confident but not complacent.’

A Green Party source added: ‘We think we’re risking everything in this election. We gave everything.

‘I think we can at least say we gave Labor the fright of their lives in what was until recently considered one of the safest places in the country.’

Meanwhile, a fierce debate has broken out over allegations of high levels of illegal ‘family voting’ in the by-elections.

Sir Keir Starmer, seen speaking to students in Newcastle earlier on Thursday, faces an anxious wait for the result

Green leader Zack Polanski was optimistic about his party’s chances, saying: I’m pretty sure we’re in first or second place, and I think that’s pretty incredible.

Volunteers for Democracy, which sent accredited observers to Gorton and Denton on Thursday, expressed fears about major violations of election law.

Family voting is when a voter accompanies another person into or near voting booths for the purpose of influencing their vote.

A tougher law known as the Ballot Secrecy Act was passed in 2023 to restrict the practice.

It more clearly made it a crime for a person to accompany a voter to a voting booth or stand nearby with the intention of influencing the voter.

In a statement released as the polls closed on Thursday night, Volunteers for Democracy said they had seen ‘the highest level of family voting in any election in our 10-year history of observing elections in the UK’.

But Manchester City Council insisted ‘no such issue was reported’.

Mr Farage said the report of high levels of family voting ‘raises serious questions about the integrity of the democratic process in Muslim-majority areas’.

Voting centers in Gorton and Denton closed at 10pm on Thursday, with results expected early Friday morning.

Labor has launched a fierce campaign to maintain its grip on the constituency, a traditional stronghold that has been said to have been visited by more than 1,000 activists.

A number of senior Labor figures have also filled the seat, including Sir Keir himself, senior Cabinet ministers and Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.

Labor candidate local councilor Angeliki Stogia joined Labor deputy leader Lucy Powell and Mr Burnham at her latest photocall on Thursday.

As we counted down to the final hours of the campaign, in the pouring rain in Gorton, three people boarded the campaign bus with activists to knock on the door one last time.

Mr Burnham said he was not upset about not standing in the by-election, as his bid to run for a Labor seat was dramatically blocked by Sir Keir last month.

He said, ‘No, we have a great candidate and he hasn’t put a foot wrong.’ ‘He was out every day. “He made us proud.”

The mayor of Greater Manchester is seen as a potential rival for the leadership if Sir Keir returns to Westminster as an MP.

Voting in the Greater Manchester seat took place between 7am and 10pm on Thursday, with the result expected in the early hours of Friday morning.

Labor candidate local councilor Angeliki Stogia was joined by Labor deputy leader Lucy Powell and Manchester mayor Andy Burnham at her latest photo call on Thursday.

Mr Farage visited Gorton and Denton on Wednesday night and spoke to voters alongside Reform candidate Matthew Goodwin.

Ahead of the polls opening at 7am on Thursday morning, Mr Farage said: ‘Our message on election day is clear.

‘The Prime Minister is panicking and knows he has broken his promises to the British people. Vote Reform to ditch Starmer.’

The Greens sought to present themselves as the only option for anti-Reform voters.

Their candidate, Hannah Spencer, has vowed to ‘kick the far right out of Manchester, never to return’.

He said: ‘Polls and independent tactical polling make it clear that voting Green is the only way to ensure Reform does not win.’

The Greens also sought to appeal to the significant Muslim votes in Gorton and Denton by putting pressure on Sir Keir and Labor over Gaza.

The seat is sharply divided along ethnicity, religion and deprivation, making the outcome incredibly difficult to predict.

Nigel Farage visited Gorton and Denton on Wednesday night and spoke to voters alongside Reform UK candidate Matthew Goodwin.

The Greens hope to show they can mount a serious left-wing challenge to Labor under new leader Zack Polanski, pictured with by-election candidate Hannah Spencer

The performance of Sir Keir’s Labor Party, as it struggles to contain the Mandelson scandal and dire national polls, could be a make or break.

The Prime Minister made a token visit to the constituency on Monday but was humiliatingly kept away from ordinary voters due to poor results in the polls.

The Prime Minister barely survived a leadership coup two weeks ago and the Cabinet was only put together at the last moment.

Even Sir Keir’s supporters believe a third-place finish at Gorton and Denton could be fatal.

In his final message to voters, Sir Keir sought to woo undecided Labor voters by portraying the contest as an open battle between his party and Reform.

He said: ‘The choice in today’s by-election could not be starker. Unity or division.

‘Reducing the cost of living with Labour, or driving a wedge between Reform communities.

‘Moving forward together or eliminating the anger and division that holds our country back.

‘Reform’s Matthew Goodwin thinks people of color cannot be British and wants women who choose not to have children to pay more taxes.

‘Vote Labor in Gorton and Denton today to rally him and his toxic policies.’

Labor’s big boys, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting, are descending on the constituency in a bid to mobilize the party’s votes

The contest in Manchester has been besieged by allegations of dirty tricks, with parties repeatedly directing each other’s candidates to the police.

In the latest twist, the Greens accused Labor of distributing leaflets urging voters to support Sir Keir’s party from a ‘completely fictitious’ tactical voting organisation.

The ‘Tactical Election’ leaflets included a purported poll that left Labor and Reform neck-and-neck, ‘excluding polls funded by Green Party donors’.

They added: ‘Based on a new forecast published in the last 24 hours, we recommend voting Labour.’

A Green Party spokesman said: ‘In a last ditch act of desperation the Labor Party set up a completely fictitious organization called ‘Tactical Election’, referencing them in their latest leaflets.

‘They’ve had to make up for it because the real tactical voting bodies have all endorsed the Green Party as the best hope of keeping Reform out of this election.’

The Labor Party, on the other hand, accused the Greens of ‘inciting hatred’ towards Gaza in the constituency where the Muslim population is concentrated.

The party even released a campaign video in Urdu, featuring footage of David Lammy shaking hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Ms Powell said the Greens campaign was ‘characterised by misinformation and dangerous bar charts’.

But Labor published its own leaflet, which included a bar chart showing it neck and neck with Reform, but without the Greens in the front row.