Takeaways from a UK special election won by the Green Party over Starmer’s Labour

The decisive election victory for Britain’s environmentalist Green Party is a nightmare for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, raising questions about how long he will continue to lead.

Less than two years after coming to power by a landslide, Starmer’s centre-left Labor Party has not only lost its long-standing stronghold in the heart of northern England, but also finished third, finishing behind both the left-leaning Greens and the far-right party Reform UK.

Elections in Greater Manchester’s Gorton and Denton constituency on Thursday were for just one of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. But this is a glimpse into the complex new reality of British politics, and the consequences could be far-reaching.

Here are the takeaways from the election.

Starmer is in trouble

The result is a severe blow to Starmer, whose leadership has been through a series of crises and suffered a near-death experience earlier this month.

Since his election in July 2024, Starmer has been struggling to deliver promised economic growth, repair aging public services and ease the cost of living. His government has been sidetracked by missteps and U-turns over welfare cuts and other unpopular policies.

The next national election is not due to be held until 2029, meaning the real threat to Starmer comes from his own party. According to British rules, the ruling party can change the prime minister without going to the voters.

Three weeks ago, it looked like this might happen, when the knock-on effects of the Jeffrey Epstein files released in the United States caused an outpouring of discontent.

Many Labor MPs and the party’s leader in Scotland called for Starmer’s resignation, his chief of staff and communications director resigned, and his premiership was pushed to the brink.

Starmer promised to stay and received a reprieve after potential leadership rivals publicly backed him. But its already precarious position is now even more shaky and faces danger after the May 7 local and regional elections, in which Labor is expected to perform poorly.

Jon Trickett, the Labor MP on the party’s left, said on Friday that Starmer should “look in the mirror and make a decision about his own personal future”.

Britain has a fragmented political system

Green Party leader Zack Polanski said the results showed “Labour’s electoral pressure is over”.

For a century, UK national politics was dominated by two parties: the Conservatives on the right and the Labor Party on the left. Unlike many European countries, Britain does not have a system of proportional representation; This means that small parties are struggling to overcome this system.

But this is changing. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own separate parties. New parties on both the left and the right are gaining increasing numbers of votes.

Reform UK, the last party led by anti-immigration campaigner Nigel Farage, has been leading opinion polls for months, ahead of both Labor and the Conservative Party, despite having just eight seats in the House of Commons.

Under their new leader, “eco-populist” Polanski, the Greens have positioned themselves as an alternative to Labor for left-liberal voters, taking their message beyond environmental concerns and focusing on issues such as the cost of living, drug legalization and support for the Palestinian cause.

Newly elected MP Hannah Spencer is a 34-year-old plumber who apologized to customers in her victory speech for having to cancel appointments so she could start her new job in Parliament.

He talked about the issues that should be on Labor’s agenda: the cost of living, worn-out public services and the erosion of opportunity in former industrial areas that have traditionally voted Labour.

“To the people in Gorton and Denton who feel left behind and isolated: I see you and I will fight for you,” Spencer said.

Labor is left in the middle

The result reveals Labour’s plight: it faces challenges from both left and right.

Thursday’s elections took place in a diverse area with traditionally working-class neighborhoods that were once a Labor stronghold and now leaning towards Reform, as well as large numbers of university students and Muslim residents. Many feel disappointed by Labour’s centrist shift under Starmer and by the government’s slowness to criticize Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, a fertile ground for the Green Party.

Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said the result was a “nightmare scenario for the incumbent government”.

“They fell into the election valley,” Ford wrote on social media. “It’s been rejected in the middle. It’s been rejected on the right. Now it’s been rejected on the left.”

Following the defeat, many in the Labor Party called for a change of direction, saying efforts to win over “Reform-minded” voters with policies aimed at curbing immigration had alienated many liberal voters.

“Labour has made a big mistake if they think they can win the election by moving into the territory occupied by Mr Farage and his party,” Trickett told Times Radio. He said the party made the mistake of assuming “progressive voters have nowhere else to go.”

Jeffrey Epstein was a factor

Starmer has been tainted by the scandals surrounding Jeffrey Epstein, whom he never knew and whose crimes he was not involved in.

The leadership crisis earlier this month was sparked by revelations about the relationship between sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and veteran Labor politician Peter Mandelson, who has been appointed by Starmer as the UK’s ambassador to Washington in 2024.

Police are investigating emails that suggest Mandelson passed sensitive government information to Epstein fifteen years ago. Mandelson was arrested and questioned by detectives before being released on bail this week. He is not facing any sexual abuse allegations.

Starmer fired Mandelson in September 2025 after evidence emerged that the ambassador had maintained a friendship with Epstein following his 2008 conviction for sexual offenses involving a minor. But recent revelations have fueled Labor MPs’ anger at Starmer’s poor decision to appoint Mandelson to the post in Washington.

On Friday, Starmer acknowledged the result was disappointing but vowed to “keep fighting”.

“Incumbent governments often get these kinds of results in the medium term, but I understand voters are frustrated,” he said. “They are impatient for change.”