WTI Oil prices jump on fears Iran attack will lead disruption
A cargo ship is seen off the coast of the city of Fujairah in the Strait of Hormuz, north of the Emirate, on February 25, 2026.
Giuseppe Cacace | Afp | Getty Images
Crude oil prices are expected to rise when trading begins Sunday evening as market participants fear the war between the United States and Iran could spiral out of control and lead to a major supply disruption.
A massive wave of airstrikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders in the Islamic Republic. See the latest developments here.
Kalshi prediction markets We currently see a 79% chance of U.S. crude reaching at least $73 per barrel or more. US crude oil Oil, which has gained 17% so far this year in anticipation of a possible Iranian attack, closed at $67.02 per barrel on Friday. Energy futures will start trading at 18.00 GMT.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, could see even bigger gains. Brent futures closed at $73.21 per barrel on Friday and are up 20% so far this year.
It is unclear who currently runs OPEC’s fourth-largest oil producer. How the oil market ultimately reacts will depend on whether the war will lead to prolonged disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important choke point for global oil trade.
Crude oil futures, YTD
President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran wanted to talk and he agreed, leaving open the possibility that there might be a way to de-escalate that would prevent a major and prolonged disruption.
“They want to talk, and I agreed to talk, so I’ll talk to them,” Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday. The president told CNBC that US military operations in Iran are “ahead of plan.”
However, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy, tanker traffic in the Bosphorus has practically come to a halt due to precautions taken by shipping companies. Global benchmark Brent The firm predicts on Saturday that crude oil futures could rise by $20 when trading opens.
“Tankers are starting to be built in the Strait of Hormuz, but nothing seems to be going on right now; tankers are absolutely spooked,” said oil analyst Matt Smith of energy consultancy Kpler.
According to Kpler data, on average, more than 14 million barrels of oil passed through the Bosphorus per day in 2025; This is approximately one-third of the world’s total seaborne crude oil exports. According to the company, approximately three-quarters of these exports go to China, India, Japan and South Korea.
Other analysts see a more modest bounce depending on how the conflict develops. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said prices should rise at least $3 to $5 a barrel when trading begins.
Lipow said Sunday that the worst-case scenario would be an Iranian attack on Saudi oil infrastructure followed by a complete closure of the Strait. The analyst said that oil prices would increase by $10 to $20 in this scenario, and he put the probability of this at 33%.
Brent crude oil futures, YTD
Barclays said Brent could hit $100 a barrel when trading resumes as the market grapples with the threat of potential supply disruptions.
“How this will end is extremely uncertain at this stage, but in the meantime oil markets will have to confront their worst fears,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note to clients on Saturday. he said. “It is difficult to overstate the potential impact on oil markets.”
