Without some change in direction, Iran’s regime risks breakdown in civil order | Iran
Now there are two Irans in sight. There is Iran, at night, dancing, celebrating and shedding tears of joy over the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hoping it signals the end of religious rule and isolation from the west. Mourning crowds gather in squares in Tehran and Isfahan during the day, demanding revenge and lamenting the loss of their holy leader.
There is no need to guess which power has more domestic military power and maintains the upper hand, but it is more difficult to understand whether the regime is aware that its continued, inflexible pursuit of its current path will likely result in the regime’s chaotic collapse.
There are no signs of cracking in the safety devices yet. It is known that the instinct to resist and fight is deep in Shiite Islam and the ideology of the Iranian regime.
On the face of it, it seems illogical for the regime to withstand this weight of attrition. The roll call of dead leaders is extraordinary and growing. In addition to the religious leader, the dead included Major General Shahid Rezaian, head of Iran’s police force’s intelligence agency; Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Seyyed Abdolrahim Mousavi; Major General Muhammad Pakpour, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); Advisor to the commander-in-chief Admiral Ali Shamkhani and defense minister Lieutenant General Nasserzadeh. Some of them had been in office for only months, having been in office following a previous wave of assassinations during Israel’s attack on Iran in June last year.
At the same time, Iran’s stockpiles of weapons and missile launchers will soon come under pressure. Despite Iran’s justifications, the damage it inflicts on Iran’s relations with its Gulf partners appears to be worse than the physical damage it inflicts on the US bases it targets.
Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations called on Gulf countries to understand Iran’s dilemma. He complained: “The countries of the region, which have made every effort to persuade Trump to maintain diplomacy and refrain from starting a war, must now be convinced that nothing Trump says can be trusted. The way forward is for the countries of the region to come to their senses and unite against the aggressive regime.”
Anwar Gargash, senior diplomat of the United Arab Emirates, countered that Iran’s actions play into the hands of the United States. He wrote: “Iran’s aggression against the Gulf states missed its target and isolated Iran at a critical moment. Your war is not with your neighbors, and by escalating this tension, you confirm the narrative of those who see Iran as the region’s primary source of danger and its missile program as a permanent source of instability. Before the circle of isolation and tension widens, return to your senses, your surroundings, and deal with your neighbors with reason and responsibility.”
Dr. President of the UAE-based Emirates Policy Center think tank. Ebtesam al-Ketbi noted that the number of Iranian missiles directed at Gulf countries exceeded those launched against Israel. If the declared conflict is with Israel, then why is the Gulf paying the heaviest price, he asked? The UAE alone was attacked by 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and 541 drones.
But there is no sign yet that Iran’s surviving leadership is listening to these complaints. In fact, Oman, which survived the attacks on the first day, was hit despite acting as a mediator in the now abandoned talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program. This serves to make the political environment in which Iran operates much more challenging and to further isolate Iran, making the possibility of a Gulf military response ever closer.
But for now, the surviving leadership, such as Ali Larijani, secretary of the supreme national council, is focusing on his domestic audience and pulling every patriotic string possible to reassure and rally the nation.
Morale may be high among Iranians who took great personal risk to call for the dictator’s death during recent protests against the regime, but judging by the crowds that filled the streets on Sunday to mourn Khamenei’s death, there is no immediate prospect of the last Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, returning to Iran to be greeted with universal applause.
Although even mainstream reformist leaders such as Azar Mansouri acknowledge that there is a debate within Iran about the validity of foreign intervention following January’s crackdown and mass incarceration of critics, hostility to a U.S. resolution of Iran’s future is widespread. A reformist group opposing the regime warned against “humanitarian intervention” on Sunday, saying “foreign bombs and missiles are not harbingers of democracy but seeds of destruction and dependency.”
If Pahlavi returned prematurely, he would most likely return to fight in a civil war; The risks of this situation were well articulated on Sunday by Reza Nasri, a lawyer close to the foreign ministry.
“The stage is clear,” he wrote. “On the one hand, there is a grand geopolitical project whose ultimate goal is to undermine all elements of Iran’s power and turn the country into a half-dead, collapsed, subservient entity under the command of Israel and America, with a puppet government installed by coup. On the other hand, a long-standing national movement, despite all internal problems, remains determined to resist the surrender of the country’s fate to foreign hands for the sake of preserving independence and national dignity. Every free Iranian who owns these lands is valuable. In their hearts, they will undoubtedly choose the second path.”
In an attempt to exude an air of stability, the leadership moved quickly to appoint three strong interim leaders, with Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, head of the judiciary, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, representing the Guardian council, ensuring that the existing anti-Western bias would continue.
No matter who Iran’s current system tries to choose as Khamenei’s successor, the instinct will be to double down by choosing someone who is a Revolutionary Guard-focused authoritarian and send a message to protesters that they should not dare try their luck again. Iran has been preparing and discussing Khamenei’s succession for decades, and the directly elected 88-person Assembly of Experts, the body that elects the supreme leader, is full of conservatives.
In the last parliamentary elections in 2024, three relatively moderate candidates, including former president Hassan Rouhani, were barred from running. Rouhani was not given any justification but accused the ruling minority of wanting to stifle competition and voter turnout. There are now rumors that the regime knows it has become too weak and needs to at least expand its leadership base to include not only Rouhani but also former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
However, if the war continues, if it is carried out unlimitedly or without borders, in the words of foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, and if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, then there is a possibility that Iranian society will collapse with the breakdown of civil order. There is no money coming out of the machines, no bread is being made, revolutionary courts are being demolished, prisons are being opened and ethnic groups are claiming rights.
There is a primarily Turkish effort to see if a way can be found to de-escalate tensions, but what appears to be at stake now is more than stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and instead the geopolitical order in the Middle East.
Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have a broad vision of what this might entail, but it’s less clear that they have a detailed road map to get there. But the US president, feeling that he is also in good shape, exudes confidence that the members of the Revolutionary Guard, who have been offered immunity from investigation, will weigh the personal odds and shortcomings.
“I know exactly who it is, but I can’t tell you,” Trump said in a phone interview with CBS when asked who he thought would be the key decision-maker after Khamenei’s death.
When asked if there was a specific person in Iran whom he would like to lead the country, he replied: “Yes, I think so, there are good options.” The important days ahead will determine whether others will agree or not.
