Shabana Mahmood to limit refugees to 30 months in UK | Immigration and asylum

Shabana Mahmood has ripped up the government’s asylum rules, with every refugee to be told from Monday that their status is temporary and will only last 30 months.

Applicants whose countries are deemed safe by the UK government will now be expected to return, the home secretary has said, in a move that concerns a refugee charity.

The announcement comes despite calls this weekend from some Labor MPs, colleagues and affiliated unions for Keir Starmer’s government to move towards progressive policies after the party came third in Thursday’s Gorton and Denton by-election.

The changes include plans to double to 10 years the time some foreign nationals must wait before settling in the UK.

In an interview with the Guardian, Mahmood called on Labor MPs to get behind immigration reforms or risk the Nigel Farage-led government deporting refugees to “certain death”.

He stressed that the policies, which were unpopular with traditional Labor voters, took into account the concerns of people resentful of “public services being under pressure”.

Under Monday’s changes, adults and accompanying children seeking asylum will receive a 30-month period of protection if they are accepted.

After a 30-month review, the protection of refugees who continue to need asylum will be renewed, and those whose countries are now deemed safe will be expected to return home.

The new rules will not be applied retroactively to people who applied before Monday.

In the previous system, refugees were provided with five years of protection, were allowed to bring their families, and then possible permanent settlement was provided.

Just over 100,000 people sought asylum in 2025; This figure is 4% less than the previous year. Half of the refugees came through unauthorized means of entry, such as small boats.

The change follows Mahmood’s visit to Denmark last week, which has taken a similar approach in recent years.

The Danish government reduced asylum claims by more than 90% in a decade, but was accused of violating the human rights of refugees.

The left-leaning Social Democrats, who have been in power in Copenhagen since 2019, overtook the insurgent populist party by adopting a hardline stance.

Mahmood said: “We must ensure that our asylum system does not create pull factors that draw people into dangerous journeys around the world.

“Genuine refugees will find safety in Britain, but we must also reduce the incentives that so attract people here, including those who have no legitimate need for protection. So when a refugee’s home is safe and they can return, they will be expected to do so too.”

He told the Guardian that the Home Office had the capacity and resources to carry out additional checks on refugee claims each year.

“We have the resources and the administrative capacity and I am confident that these things can be done and that they will be based on the security of the country to which they need to return,” he said.

Imran Hussain, director of external affairs at the Refugee Council, said the change would prevent people escaping “unimaginable dangers” from setting down roots and finding work.

“Short-term leave means that refugee families who have survived war, persecution and unimaginable dangers will face renewed uncertainty every 30 months, damaging integration in the long term,” he said.

“These men, women and children should be able to put down roots: settle in communities, learn English and find employment.”

He said the council calculated the new workload would cost up to £725 million and result in 1.1 million repeat case reviews.

The change in policy could have a deterrent effect “at the borders” but may struggle to deliver large-scale returns, an immigration expert said.

Peter Walsh, senior researcher at the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, said: “Of the 30,000 Syrian refugees in Denmark, only 1,200 have been reassessed, several hundred have had their status cancelled, and no one has been reported to have been sent to Syria as of early 2024.

“Instead, many people remain in the country for long periods without legal status because their deportation is not operationally or diplomatically feasible.”

The impact on migration numbers will vary depending on whether checks on refugee status are “light touch” or “significant”, Walsh said.

“The more intense and frequent the investigations, the greater the uncertainty for individuals and the greater the administrative burden for the Home Office,” he said.

The government announced in November that refugee protection would become temporary.

Next week Mahmood will argue that immigration policies, including forcing people to wait 20 years before they can apply for permission to remain, are fully consistent with Labor values. These changes are expected to be implemented in the fall.

Speaking at a think tank, he will warn Labor MPs that the party’s future is “in jeopardy” unless it supports “immigration-level controls” to limit pressure on communities.

Wider changes, such as an overhaul of the asylum appeals system, will come in the form of a border security, asylum and immigration bill in the king’s speech in May. He is likely to face a Labor rebellion in both houses of Parliament.

In the Guardian interview, Mahmood said Labor needed to acknowledge the public’s “legitimate” concerns about immigration and make changes. Otherwise, he said, a Reform-led government would pursue plans to deport hundreds of thousands of people even though they deserved asylum in the UK.

“A Reform government under Nigel Farage will remove the drawbridge completely and put an end to centuries of tolerance and generosity in this country,” he said.

“They want to knock on doors, gather people who have been here for decades, who have worked in our public services, who have raised families, who have made this country their home.

“They say they are going to deport people on such a large scale that they can only do that by sending people back to places where they face certain death.”

A Reform UK spokesman said: “Shabana Mahmood’s comments are ridiculous. Reform UK has consistently said our priority is to tackle illegal immigration and regain control of the UK’s borders. The British people deserve honesty, not hysteria.”