How London’s falling birthrate is affecting applications for secondary school places

London has seen a slight decline in secondary school applications this year; This trend is directly linked to the capital’s continuing falling birth rate.

Figures released on National Secondary Bidding Day show there were 86,057 applications for places; this is a 1.6% decrease from last year’s 87,512.

This follows a decline of 3.1% in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a continued downward trend.

Despite the overall decline, the proportion of children securing choice schools has remained broadly stable.

London Boroughs reported that 70.5% of applicants received offers from their first choice secondary school for 2026; this is a marginal decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to 2025.

A significant 89.6% were offered one of their top three choices and 94.3% took at least one of their chosen schools, consistent with the previous year.

This decline in secondary school applications reflects a broader demographic shift in the capital, where a rapidly falling birth rate has already prompted many municipalities to consider closing or merging primary schools.

This means that in 2026, 4,862 children did not receive an offer from any of their preferred schools.

Councilor Ian Edwards, London Council’s executive member for children and young people, said: “We are delighted that the vast majority of children in London are being offered a place at one of their preferred schools.

“As student numbers continue to decline, districts have worked closely with local schools to ensure sufficient seats are available to meet demand.”

Children’s first choice of secondary school was most likely to take place in Barking and Dagenham; 83.1% got into the school of their choice. They were the least likely to be in Greenwich, where 60.2% had their first choice this year.

Jon Abbey, chairman of the Pan-London Admissions Board, said some families were unable to get their first choice because demand for a particular school exceeded places available, but there were enough places in London to meet overall demand.

London Councils predict a 3.8% decline in demand for secondary school places over the next four years, equating to around 112 classes.

The whole country has seen the impact of the decline in birth rates on primary school enrollments over the past few years, but London has seen some of the steepest declines.

The Education Policy Institute found last year that nine of the 10 local authorities that saw the biggest decline in primary school pupils over the past five years were in London.

Population growth in England is shifting towards secondary schools, but the Department for Education said in July that student numbers are expected to peak in 2026/27.

The total number of children under 16 in England is expected to decrease by 6% over the next decade.

Schools are funded on a per-student basis, which means falling scores are a major concern for them, as large declines have been linked to school closures.

James Toop, chief executive of Teach First, said: “In our current system, postcode determines opportunity, not potential. With top schools moving to expensive postcodes for accommodation, fewer and fewer disadvantaged students are accessing the school of their choice, leaving them without the excellent education they deserve.”

“This School Offers Day should serve as a wake-up call to focus on funding and financial incentives for schools and teachers serving the students and regions that need them most,” he added.