Trump’s show of force in the Middle East creates a weakness China can exploit | US-Israel war on Iran

As the United States and Israel open a new page of chaos in the Middle East, China is poised to take advantage of a Washington establishment that does not have the political or physical resources to focus on Asia.

China officially condemned the attacks. Foreign Minister Wang Yi called these “unacceptable” and called for a ceasefire; This discourse was unique to Beijing in response to Donald Trump’s increasingly unstable foreign policy moves.

Wang made similar comments after the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. The Chinese government does not miss the opportunity to present itself as a defender of international law and stability, even though it provides little financial support to the junior partners who are at the center of the US president’s latest ire.

But aside from the chance to score diplomatic points, Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran, which has already escalated into a regional conflict, creates space for China to once again strengthen its critical mineral dominance, especially in the field of defense, and places the Taiwan issue on an increasingly long list of concerns for the United States.

However, attacks on Iran carry some risks for China, especially when it comes to oil.

China is thought to purchase approximately 80% of the oil shipped by Iran. This accounts for approximately 13% of China’s seaborne imports; But it is difficult to grasp the true extent of China’s Iranian oil imports because much of these imports are labeled as originating from Indonesia or Malaysia to avoid US sanctions.

Losing cheap oil from Iran, however manageable, would be a blow to China. But it has been almost two months since the US effectively took control of the Venezuelan oil industry, another source of cheap, albeit much smaller, supplies for China.

According to a analysis More than a fifth of China’s oil imports in 2025 came from sources including Venezuela, Iran and Russia, which are subject to sanctions, according to Erica Downs, a senior research fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Two of these supply chains are now at risk. On Saturday, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, tweeted that prices could be “over $100 per barrel oil soon.” Prices of benchmark Brent crude reached $82 per barrel on Monday, a 14-month high.

“This doesn’t come at a good time for China,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at investment bank Natixis, noting that China faces rising energy demands due to the rapid rollout of data centers needed to train artificial intelligence, a key pillar of China’s economic plans for the next five years. “The trend is for oil to become less and less available at below-market prices.”

On Sunday, the Hualue Center for American Studies, a Shanghai-based think tank with government ties, said the China-Iran strategic partnership agreement worth $400 billion in 2021 could also be at risk if the leadership in Tehran is replaced by a pro-Western regime.

But China is strengthening its strategic buffers. Only a small portion of the $400 billion promised in 2021 has been delivered. And perhaps mindful of geopolitical shocks on the horizon, China has spent the past year building oil stocks; Demand is expected to peak soon as China’s green transition accelerates. China’s crude oil imports rose 4.4% last year, with more than 80% of that increase being stockpiled, according to calculations based on data from Rystad Energy.

This means it can withstand any shocks to its supply, both from the loss of Iranian oil and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, for at least a few months.

Some analysts say that the biggest damage from the shock in oil prices will be to Trump, who wants to keep inflation under control in the USA as the midterm elections in November approach.

a critical moment

And there may be some ways in which China can benefit from the unrest sparked by Washington’s military salvos.

Launching a new attack on Iran would deplete both the US and Israel’s American weapons stockpiles. Last year, the Pentagon stopped arms shipments to Ukraine due to concerns about decreasing stocks. The Guardian reported that the Pentagon has only 25% of the Patriot missile systems needed for its military plans.

But still, the United States has deployed many of its most powerful weapons in the Middle East for Operation Epic Fury, including Patriot and Thaad missile defense systems, F-35 fighter jets and other advanced kits.

These weapons all rely on semiconductors and radars made of gallium, a critical mineral for which China controls the supply chain. During last year’s US-China trade war, Beijing cut exports of gallium and other rare earth elements, nearly crippling global industrial supply chains and forcing Washington’s hand in trade negotiations.

Some analysts believe that Trump’s decision to open a new military front, at a time when the United States is still dependent on China for a key defense industry product, will strengthen China’s hand for the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing.

Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, says: “Beijing would be pleased to see the United States expend scarce munitions and interceptors on a secondary theater. Reducing existing weapons stockpiles would not only reduce resources available for a contingency on Taiwan, but China’s critical mineral dominance could give it an advantage in producing new weapons.”

Matthew P Funaiole, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that gallium is used primarily in sensors rather than as expendable components of most munitions. “The longer-term vulnerability lies not in repelling them, but in the ability to generate, upgrade and repair the broader ecosystem of gallium-enabled systems.”

Funaiole says U.S. initiatives to establish supply chains of critical minerals like gallium outside of China are still in their early stages and “are unlikely to meaningfully change supply dynamics in the near term.”

There are still risks for China on the horizon. Some analysts believe that the removal of the second leader of China’s strategic partner within a few months will reduce China’s interest in the countries of the global south. In the last three years, Iran has joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Brics, two multilateral organizations led by China. China also brokered a détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia; This now seems pointless as questions remain about the extent to which Saudi Arabia may have supported the US strikes.

Still, a U.S. foreign policy establishment preoccupied with yet another expanding, unpredictable conflict far from China’s neighborhood is likely to bring more gains than losses to Beijing.