How long will the Iran war last? Experts weigh in on the debate
Clouds of smoke rise on the horizon in Tehran, Iran, on March 3, 2026.
Majid Saeedi | Getty Images
Since the US and Israel launched surprise attacks on Iran last weekend, Washington has been keen to emphasize that the military action will end within weeks and will not degenerate into a so-called “endless war”.
However, experts say that if the Iranian regime proves to be more resilient than expected, the US could easily become bogged down in “Operation Epic Rage”, which could mean the conflict will continue.
“What we’re seeing will be more complicated than the White House expected,” Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“Obviously, the beginning of the conflict looked extremely successful, with the very rapid announcement that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed; this was a major breakthrough in many respects, and the US and Israel were able to inflict great damage on Iran’s military capabilities.”
“But the next day will also be extremely complicated, and I’m not optimistic that this conflict will end quickly, because the Iranians are escalating tensions in the region and that’s been their long-standing game plan,” he said.
When airstrikes began targeting Iran’s leadership and military sites last Saturday, killing Khamenei in his compound within a few hours, it quickly became clear that the strikes would not be a “one-off” situation.
But US President Donald Trump said last week that the military operation in Iran would be over in “four to five weeks” and senior officials from Vice President J.D. Vance to Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth have emphasized that it will not be a protracted, low-impact conflict of the kind seen in Afghanistan or Iraq.
Such so-called “forever wars” have become a controversial and unpopular issue with the American public, and are especially unwelcome by Trump’s MAGA fanbase, who want the president to prioritize domestic policy over foreign policy. Only one in four Americans supports attacks on Iran. Reuters/IPSOS pollI found it last week and there were protests in Washington against the strikes.
WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES – FEBRUARY 28: Demonstrators gathered outside the White House in Washington DC to protest US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Protesters carried Iranian and American flags while chanting anti-war slogans during the rally. The demonstration took place in front of the White House and attracted participants who voiced their opposition to recent military actions. (Photo: Celal Güneş/Anadolu, via Getty Images)
Anatolia | Anatolia | Getty Images
Game plan or big gamble?
The US and Israel initially stated that their primary goal was to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, but Those war aims appear to have shifted this week, with stated objectives ranging from destroying Iran’s ballistic missile program to protecting the American people against an imminent but unspecified Iranian threat.
According to William Roebuck, former US Ambassador to Bahrain and current vice president of the Arab Gulf States Institute, Trump will be very careful with public opinion when it comes to operations in Iran.
“This is a risky proposition for him. There’s a very real chance that the economy, which he’s very focused on, will deteriorate. That could cause convulsions in the energy markets. This could cause convulsions in the stock market, which he’s also very focused on,” Roebuck told CNBC on Wednesday.
“Also, he was not able to express much in the United States why he went to Iran and carried out this military operation. [terms of] Their rationale and surveys show that only one in four Americans truly understands and supports this rationale,” Roebuck noted.
“For these reasons, it’s a bit risky for its base,” he said.
One of the biggest unknowns is whether the United States will seek regime change in the Islamic Republic after Khamenei’s death, and if so, who or what should replace the supreme leader.
Hegseth also emphasized that the military operation was not about regime change, saying on Monday: “This is not a war of so-called regime change, but the regime has certainly changed.” He referred to Khamenei’s death along with other senior officials.
Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said U.S. officials are “looking for a very, very quick resolution to this conflict” but that under current circumstances “we’re going to have to be prepared for a potentially protracted conflict.”
“We’ve heard President Trump talk about a four- to five-week operation, but Iran is a large country with a very large population and a very comprehensive security apparatus, so it’s going to be extremely difficult to try to sort out this mess and move toward some kind of interim solution. But those kinds of talks are probably still premature at this stage,” he said.
A television channel broadcasts US President Trump at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) hall in New York, USA, on Monday, March 2, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Analysts agree that the US’s game plan, or rather its end game, is unclear, making it difficult to determine how long the military operation will last. Many people liken the current operation in Iran to a “gamble” by Trump.
If regime change is the goal, experts say, it would likely require the deployment of American troops in Iran; a commitment that Washington may well shy away from, given the potential consequences for public opinion and the Republican administration.
Malcolm Rifkind, Britain’s former foreign and defense secretary, told CNBC: “There is no way American forces can be used to invade a country the size of Iran. This is not a small country, it is a very big country.”
Short war possible
While reluctance to get bogged down in a potentially protracted and bloody ground war remains, analysts say a short, targeted military operation is possible; But that ultimately depends on what Trump wants and how long the Iranian leadership can withstand the US-Israeli attack.
Former UK Ambassador to Iran Robert Macaire agrees that a “forever war” is a very unlikely scenario as Iran has no ability to continue retaliating “indefinitely”.
“The attacks are going after the launchers, the Iranian command said, there must come a point where the launches become irregular and this situation can end,” he said.
Charles Myers of Signum Global Advisors said the conflict has only one outcome: Iran loses.
“This is not a long-term war, or even a medium-term war. There is only one outcome here, and that is that Iran will lose. Iran is facing the two strongest, most advanced militaries in the world, and Iran will lose this war. The question is what losing will look like and how long it will take,” he told CNBC on Thursday.
Myers expects the kinetic portion of the battle to be “completed within the next three to four days.”
“And after that, you’ll start to hear the president of the United States talk about coming off the ramps, winning, or victory. And from there, I think we’re starting to see movement toward some kind of resolution or an effort to reach an agreement… It’s not going to be a protracted military campaign,” he said.
