Trump’s Blunder. Air wars don’t work. Iran ignores the lessons of history

“Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it,” George Santayana wrote in 1905, later often misquoted as “Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.” No matter what version Michael Pascoe Trump’s air war on Iran fits the bill, he writes.

Among other things, the great American economist, public servant and author John Kenneth Galbraith was one of the key directors of the United States Strategic Bombing Survey in 1945. He became widely disliked by the US Air Force after discovering that the Allied bombing of Germany was not as effective in weakening Germany’s war machine as generals and politicians wanted to believe.

“We conclude that major strategic air strikes did not appreciably reduce German combat production and did not effectively shorten the war,” he wrote. New York Times During NATO’s Yugoslav intervention in 1999.

A similar study conducted in Japan found that the country’s industrial facilities were more vulnerable, but it was civilians who suffered the most. It was ground troops and naval power that won the war, not bombings, including two atomic bombs.

Just like in the Korean war; air power didn’t do it for MacArthur. I could summarize JKG’s article, but it’s better to read it as it was written, at the time, which might be almost present tense:

Twice the weight of the bombs dropped on Germany did not affect the outcome of the war in Vietnam or Cambodia. It took ground troops to liberate Kuwait. Saddam Hussein survived subsequent air strikes and was perhaps strengthened by the public outcry.

We now rely on planes in Serbia and Kosovo. In keeping with history, it is possible that our air strike did indeed strengthen Slobodan Milosevic. For an ordinary Serbian citizen, he has less to fear than our bombers. And one can at least wonder whether most of the refugees from Kosovo left because of the threat from the air.

Our dependence on air power has two sources. First, we have the real but rarely expressed hope that we can wage a war without casualties; a clean, hygienic operation, free from the guns, shells, physical misery, wounds and deaths of ground war. This avoids the domestic political impact of emptying body bags.

More importantly, technical success, public expenditure and industrial influence necessitate the use of air power. All that is missing is military effectiveness and tolerance of bombed enemy civilians.

So what should be our concern and that of the NATO alliance regarding Serbia, including Kosovo? I do not encourage ground operations. These will only provoke the negative public and political reaction that has made air power so popular. And I don’t want to leave young people to get hurt and die, especially when there’s a better solution.

The better solution is patience. We must stop the bombing, isolate Serbia economically, and use our vast resources and organizational skills to make life for refugees as safe, even pleasant, as possible. We must give strong financial support to Albania and Macedonia to ease the huge burden on them. Let’s open the USA even further to refugees. This was our greatest service in the past to the deprived and hopeless of the world, and it was entirely for our own ultimate benefit.

Time is the greatest cure of all. If we stop the bombing together with our NATO allies and are open to negotiation, eventually reason will prevail. There will be negotiations, there will be some kind of solution. On the contrary, war does not heal, and its impact on those who take part in it and those who remain unhappily there is obvious.

Galbraith could have included examples where the Soviet Union failed to tame Afghanistan with air power, or where the United States and its allies failed with any force there either.

(What is clear is: “It took 20 years and $3.5 trillion to replace the Taliban.”)

Australia and the “Epstein Coalition”. The invasion of Iran is a disaster

Trump and Netanyahu are not patient people. Neither of them seem to have any sense of history. In the case of the former, you can leave it as “in any sense”. Beyond self-aggrandizement.

While the US administration struggles and makes new excuses about why it joined Israel’s war against Iran, the only clarity is how coincidental and how hot it is.

It is possible to imagine the oppressed Iranian people, who do not support the regime, rising up and coming to power. It is possible to imagine anything you can imagine.

You might even say that it is not impossible for it to happen, but you would be such a simple, reckless and dangerous soul to go to war for such an imaginary possibility.

Trump’s gaffes

But that’s what Trump did and, incredibly, the Australian Government supported him.

As many comments made clear, we agreed with Trump without offering a critical eye, as the United States discarded the United Nations and its pretense of “international rules-based order.”

I think we should be thankful that Americano Albo and Pentagon Penny offered only money, words and support for the use of American bases here, not Australian troops and their blood. Or at least not yet.

History tells us that Iran may be subdued for a time, but its attacked people will continue to fight and destroy whatever damage they can as the opportunity arises.

The lesson from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is that relatively inexpensive drones can successfully challenge superior and much more expensive weapons. $4 million Patriot missiles that capture $50,000 drones will soon be assembled.

And the lesson from Iraq is that Australia aligning itself with the US military machine could make Australians targets.

Our perception of what is most important to our own security and future in our region is further damaged as we renew our Dawg Member of Parliament status.

Elements of the American machine see themselves as Crusaders in the Middle East. See Hegseth’s tattoos – and the end of American evangelicals looking for Armageddon, the company we cooperate with is no friend of our important neighbors.

But we know our place as a vassal state.