Toyota, Hyundai, Chinese expected to be most impacted by Iran war
Toyota Motor Corp. The vehicles will be shipped from Nagoya Port in Tokai, Aichi Prefecture, Japan, on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.
Toru Hanai | Bloomberg | Getty Images
DETROIT — Toyota MotorChinese automakers such as Hyundai Motor and Chery face the most potential impact from non-domestic automakers from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, according to an analysis by Bernstein.
These international automakers account for roughly a third of sales in the Middle East, led by Toyota at 17%, according to the report. hyundai at 10% and Chery at 5%. Specifically in Iran, Bernstein reports that Iranian automakers Iran Khodro and SAIPA are leading the pack, followed by Chery with a 6% market share.
Other Chinese automakers are also expected to be affected as the Middle East becomes a growing destination for Chinese auto exports. Citing Chinese export data, Bernstein said the region will account for about 17% of China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025.
The Bernstein report notes that sales in the region will be affected, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, and rising oil prices will have ripple effects on the global automotive industry.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz would add 10-14 days to transit times,” Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee said in an investor note on Wednesday, adding that “a prolonged conflict and closure of the strait would hurt sales, increase logistics costs, and delay deliveries.”
According to consulting firm AlixPartners, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait every day. This is also a “critical transition” for shipping vehicles and parts to the Middle East, Bernstein said.
Bernstein said any impact on Japanese automakers “appears to be limited for now, but it is still necessary to monitor developments closely.” Also mentioned were the parent companies of European automakers Chrysler and Jeep. Stellantis “It appears to have the greatest risk given the overall issues.”
“The impact of rising gas pump prices is already visible in the 11% decline in Stellantis’ stock price since last Friday’s close; making such a sharp pivot to gas-guzzling HEMI V8 engines and writing off electrification efforts seems particularly ominously timed right now,” Lee wrote.
U.S. crude oil prices rose above $90 a barrel on Friday, and retail gasoline prices in the U.S. were up about 27 cents through Thursday last week, to an average of $3.25 a gallon, according to driving group AAA.
Stellantis said this week that it was “closely monitoring developments in the affected countries” and that it was “not yet possible to fully assess the potential impact on local operations.”
Toyota said in an emailed statement that it “does not do business in Iran and has no employees located there.” The company said it was “monitoring the situation closely and prioritizing the safety of our local employees and relevant parties in the Middle East.”
Hyundai and Chery did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
