Iran war oil price rise makes affordability bigger issue

November’s midterm elections were always supposed to be about affordability. Then bombs started falling on Iran.

The expanding US war in the Middle East threatens to upend the cost-of-living narrative that has so far defined the fight for control of Congress.

The election, now less than eight months away, will determine whether President Donald Trump maintains his firm grip on Washington or spends his final two years in office fending off Democrats’ congressional majorities.

Both sides are trying to capitalize on kitchen table problems as Americans struggle to keep up with the rising costs of ordinary goods and services. The war in Iran now threatens to further fuel these concerns, and Democrats are seizing the opportunity to humiliate Trump and Republicans to start a conflict that could make life even more expensive for ordinary Americans.

“I think this is going to have a lot of unforeseen consequences because there hasn’t been any planning in place,” Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview with CNBC. “I mean, you’ve seen how much gas goes up in one day, oil futures go up, there’s going to be a lot of knock-on effects.”

Some of these knock-on effects are already evident. US crude oil It rose from $67 a barrel to over $90 a barrel the day before the war started. Global market index Brent It skyrocketed to over $90 per barrel. This has caused gas prices to rise to about $3.38 per gallon, relative to the national average. gasbuddyIt was up more than 35 cents from the week before the war.

Rep. D-Calif., ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee. Its representative, Jared Huffman, noted in an interview that liquefied natural gas prices have also increased. While increases in the US have been modest so far, global LNG supplies have remained under pressure due to the shutdown in Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG-producing countries. Natural gas is the largest producer of electricity in the United States, which is critical as the booming data center industry puts strain on the electric grid and increases utility costs.

“I think the thing that American families have felt most acutely over the past year is the increased energy bills and utility bills,” Huffman said. “Much of the increase in utility bills is due to natural gas becoming increasingly expensive… Much of our efforts have been directed towards LNG exports rather than strategies to lower bills for American consumers. This problem is exacerbated by this conflict.”

But a quick operation in Iran is far from certain, and Iran chief Brittany Martinez said any prolonged conflict could lead to an election-year quagmire for Republicans. Principles First and former aide to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

“If energy prices rise or markets remain unstable, affordability becomes a harder message for Republicans to carry cleanly,” Martinez said. “Republicans will argue that projecting power abroad will prevent further instability, while Democrats will try to attribute any sustained price increases to foreign policy decisions. The question is whether this will turn into a long-term conflict that voters will feel on their household budgets.”

Many people, including Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), national security adviser in the Obama White House, believe military intervention in Iran has the potential to continue.

“This administration doesn’t seem to be thinking about it at all,” Kim said when asked about a potential power vacuum that would keep the United States in the region for longer. “The intelligence community has made a number of assessments that keep me up at night, and I think this White House has read the same things I have read and is still doing it, which I find absolutely reckless.”

Making things even more complicated for the GOP is the dislike of the war in Iran. A. CNN poll The report, published on March 2, revealed that approximately 60 percent of those surveyed disapprove of the US military intervention in Iran. This comes as Trump’s economic approval remains underwater: A Fox News The survey, published on March 4, revealed that 61 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s work on the economy.

“We don’t see this as an opportunity, but I think it’s our responsibility to fully explain to the American people the decision Donald Trump made,” said House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif. “It’s sending billions of dollars of our tax dollars to the Middle East for a new war while alienating people from health care and eliminating nutrition programs.”

Iowa Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, who is seeking reelection in a district, tagged Cook Political Report with Amy Walter: “throw up“He said he’s not worried the war could drown out the GOP’s affordability message. He pointed to the expanded tax and spending bill signed into law last year, increased domestic energy production and housing legislation that passed the House last month as examples of things the party will use to demonstrate action against rising costs.”

He argued that the war in the Middle East had not prevented Republicans from continuing their efforts to lower prices.

“A more heated conversation might be: How do we make sure we’re still providing affordability?” Nunn said in an interview. “I think this is definitely the right spot for us.”

But Trump, the “America First” president who campaigned to end US foreign turmoil, faces the risk of alienating his base with the Iranian attack.

Democrats see the battle as proof of what they’ve been telling voters all along about Trump: He doesn’t care about his affordability.

“We have a president who campaigned on ending wars forever, and he jumped into war without any justification or explanation to the American people,” the representative said. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.