Trump has a limited time to end the war – perhaps a week at most
Behind aggressive language, Trump administration reassures markets that Iran war will end “Very soon”. Oil prices rose to nearly $120 per barrel overnight; this was the highest level since Russia re-invaded Ukraine in February 2022, before falling to $90. This is a sign that the Third Gulf War has not yet led to an energy crisis.
For context, there is more energy capacity today compared to the Russian attacks in 2022, when oil, gas, electricity and coal prices rise. all at once. Today’s stuff is not hit with this four-hit combination. Season is also important. While Northern Europe is emerging from the worst cold period of the winter, the Asian summer is still months away. The liquefied natural gas required for power generation to meet peak electrical loads is not yet overpressured. Even the temporary rise of crude oil above $100 per barrel A record high of $145.29 was reached in July 2008.
US President Donald Trump has a limited amount of time (a week at most) to end the war, and his goals are likely to be limited. The time limits arise from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s crude and refined oil passes. The largest oil tankers, known as Very Large Crude Carriers, must pass through the strait to reach Persian Gulf refineries. Storage capacity is limited and shutting down production would harm the global economy.
How successful Trump will be in the long run is an open question, but for now, Iran’s military is battered; It lacks an effective air force and navy and is preoccupied with internal problems.
The US sank many of Iran’s naval assets. The air force, hampered by years of sanctions, is sending its own soldiers to war. aging planeSuch as 30-year-old Russian-made subsonic jets that are half the speed of F-35 aircraft and Vietnam-era F-4 and F-5 fighter jets.
Iranian leaders will need U.S. support for foreign exchange and investment to rebuild basic infrastructure; This support will be the subject of peace negotiations. For now, at least, the United States will settle for eliminating the core group of approximately 2,000 to 3,000 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders and replacing them with a new generation of commanders born in the 1960s and 1970s. The United States hopes that these new leaders may be willing to subordinate their foreign and defense policies to U.S. goals in order to retain control of lucrative business enterprise networks. Otherwise, the USA and Israel can and will do more damage to them towards the end of this year.
The late senator and presidential candidate John McCain once sang:Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” – a parody of the Beach Boys song – during the 2008 election campaign. Trump’s language is different – more colorful, more abusive, more aggressive – more of everything. But it makes powerful what is hidden in the goals of the United States.
Regardless, it is not useful to parse each statement as an indication of intent. It’s more helpful to think of him and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth as politicians playing ultra-masculine characters from professional wrestling who can say anything, act deceitfully, go against the law and rules, and be ugly, even mischievously cruel. It’s all part of the culture they embrace and that embraces them. Trump voters in 2024, those who voted for Kamala Harris, were less racially and ethnically diverse, older, and less likely to have a four-year college degree. They aren’t bothered by the aesthetics of wrestling, Trump’s visceral language or his over-the-top boasting. On the contrary, some even feel a shiver of joy at the discomfort experienced by their political opponents.
Behind the aesthetics is a calculated policy team that knows the risk appetite and is on the right side of the risk. Harming Iran and its network of allies is not a problem for the Trump administration. If he cannot achieve divide and rule immediately, he will succeed in divide and destroy for now.
Professor Clinton Fernandes is based in the Future Operations Research Group at UNSW. his last book Turbulence: Australian Foreign Policy in the Trump Era.
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Professor Clinton Fernandes is part of the University of NSW’s Future Operations Research Group, which examines the threats, risks and opportunities facing military forces in the future. He is a former intelligence officer in the Australian Army.
