Summer climate ‘whiplash’ hitting harder and faster
In one month, a popular resort town experienced two fire evacuations and flash floods along the way.
Communities along the Great Ocean Road were overwhelmed by a heatwave and bushfires in early January, followed a week later by flash floods that swept cars out to sea.
As temperature records in the state dropped in late January, residents and visitors were once again urged to leave the area due to fire danger.
The Climate Council says the region is experiencing a severe “climate pulse” characterized by fluctuations between extreme weather conditions.
Seesaw disasters occurred across the country throughout the summer, including in Western Australia, where the Eyre Highway was closed by fires and cut off by flooding two days later.
Extremes outside the usual conditions have also occurred, including record-breaking heat waves in the southeastern states that were not caused by warm northern winds from the desert.
The think tank’s latest report says the effects of climate change are accelerating as rising concentrations of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels warm the atmosphere.
Climate Council research fellow Linden Ashcroft said Australian summer weather was always extreme but extra climate pollution in the atmosphere was increasing erratic weather.
It is understood that the changes caused by global warming in the temperature differences between tropical regions and the poles negatively affect the climate.
Dr Ashcroft said Australia was in the firing line of the redistribution of energy from cold air moving northwards from Antarctica and warm air drifting around the equator towards the South Pole.
“There is more energy in our world system than at any time in human history, and that means these events are having more impact,” the senior lecturer at the University of Melbourne told AAP.
Summertime extremes leave a trail of destruction, including disrupted ecosystems, lost property, dead animals, high insurance premiums and stressed municipal budgets.
Mid Coast Council in NSW, for example, has applied for disaster recovery funding from state and federal governments 16 times since 2019.
Between 2019 and 2024, insurance companies paid out an average of $4.5 billion per year; This is more than double the annual average of the previous 30 years.
Dr Ashcroft said the horrors of the summer of 2025-26 occurred during La Nina, a pattern in the Pacific Ocean typically associated with cooler, wetter weather.
Despite these cooling conditions, Australia still had its fourth warmest year on record.
The threat of an El Niño summer linked to warmer, drier weather across Australia is looming, given the warming extremes in current baseline climate conditions, Dr. It worries Ashcroft.
March and April are typically the periods when the Pacific Ocean system “resets”, and from May onwards it becomes clear whether to expect El Nino or La Nina conditions.
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