Beijing promised to ‘fight back’ over Taiwan leader Tsai’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose
Hong Kong
Cnn
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A meeting between Taivan’s president Tsai Ing and US Parliament Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California this week was worried about the repetition of China’s print campaign last year.
At that time, Beijing surrounded the island democracy with unprecedented military exercises – fired more than one missile into the surrounding waters and sent a delicate median who divided the Taiwan Strait and even accelerated fighter planes.
In addition, he cut off his contact with the United States from military issues to the struggle with climate change, to retaliation for what he saw as a violation of sovereignty.
This time, if a TSAi-MCCarthy meeting continued, Beijing has already threatened with a “stable struggle”.
See why tension between the US and China in Taiwan increased
He also hit Washington because he allowed Tsai to take a break in the United States on his way to official visits in Central America. “Serious” conflict Between two forces.
A Tsai challenging He promised as a 10 -day trip to prevent Taiwan from making Taiwan from connecting to the world and similar democracies.
However, the optics and timing of the meeting held in California, not in Taiwan – Analysts may see that Beijing’s back was more carefully seen this time or at least climbed before a presidential election that could reset the tone of his relationship with Beijing in Taiwan.
“This puts the burden over China to excessively reaction, because any extreme reaction will only remove China from the world, Yun said Yun Sun, the Chinese program director in the Stimson Center Think tank in Washington.
However, when calibrating Beijing’s reaction, Tsai does not mean that he would not closely monitor his movements and how much soldiers can be stretched at his meeting with an American deputy on American territory.
The opaque of China’s system – and the potential of opponent interests in the wide bureaucracy – makes it difficult to correctly predict the response.
“Taiwan, every time China does not like, every time the Chinese reacts with their own military challenges,” he said. However, in the current situation, they need to take into account the consequences of the excessive reaction, ”he added.
The meeting, which was expected to announce McCarthy’s office at the beginning of this week, will take place on Wednesday, and it comes in a dangerous moment in the US-China relations.
Washington and Beijing are fighting to balance their communication Beijing, as in meeting Tsai Pelosi, has raised the risks of potential damage to this relationship from a fallen suspicious Chinese surveillance balloon to semiconductor supply chains.
Taiwan still feels the sprinkling of this answer last August, the Chinese military forces are now attacking Beijing and Taipei in the Taiwan Strait and regularly attacks on an informal but respectable control limit. Taiwan’s official central news agency said on Monday that TSAi will meet McCarthy by referring to TSAi’s presidential office.
Look at the image of a Chinese balloon circulating on Taiwan
However, a meeting between TSAI and the leader of the Republican majority in the US House of Representatives would mark another symbolic moment for Taiwan and the United States, which ranked second in the presidency.
According to a political scientist Wen-Ti Sung at the Australian National University Taiwan Research Program, TSAi, who entered the last year of his two-term presidency, is a “clear cover stone activity”. “As the President of Taiwan, who carries the US-Tayvan relations to new summits and can give Taiwan’s almost unprecedented international visibility, has this image.”
This increasing visibility – and developed cooperation with the US – followed pressure pressure on the island, which was less than 110 miles (177 kilometers) from the motherland coast of China.
China’s Communist Party claims that although he never controls the self -governing island democracy, and promised to take the island if necessary.
In the last decade, the party has undertaken a comprehensive expansion of its military abilities under the leader Xi Jinping and has increased its widespread economic, diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan.
This shows that Beijing is preparing for an invasion among some of some of Washington, but the official language of China is still not preferred to achieve the alleged “re -merger” target of the scenario.
These prints, which are likely to be on the table when TSAi, McCarthy and a two -party US deputy sit on the table on Wednesday, and how Taiwan will be supported by Beijing’s unilateral actions.
Congress has been the main pillar of American support in Taiwan in recent years. MPs regularly visit the island and are looking for a two -party legislation that increases support and cooperation.
While the US changed its diplomatic relations to Beijing decades, it maintains its informal ties with Taiwan and depends on the laws to provide ways to defend itself to the democratic island.
Under Washington’s long -standing “China” policy, the United States acknowledges that China is a part of Taiwan’s part of China, but that it officially recognizes Beijing’s claim to 23 million islands.
Although McCarthy has not had decades of advocacy of Pelosi on China, California Republican now can help to burn this image, to meet a leading voice and TSAi for a closer examination of Beijing.
Last month, McCarthy told journalists that the meeting with TSAi in the USA would not affect Taiwan in the future – something he said he wanted to do before.
In California, a meeting on the US territory, the possibility of provoking Beijing is less than a McCarthy visit to Taiwan.
Pelosi, the first of this rank in 25 years, created the fire of nationalist and anti -US discourse in China in China.
This time, so far, the indigenous speech in China’s intense controlled media has become significantly silent.
However, analysts say that the risks are high, including Beijing itself – including Beijing itself.
While Taiwan was preparing for a presidential election in January, a violent response can remove voters from Taiwan’s main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) and is more friendly to Beijing.
He can also fight with another high-profile trip: a tour from the former Taiwan President and senior KMT member Ma Ying-Jeou, the first visit from the current or former Taiwan leader since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.
Ma’s Tour said, “An opportunity to send a conciliatory message between the two sides in a half -century, Beijing should not want to tank it,” Ma’s Tour said.
China is also aware of the fact that its actions against Taiwan are significantly under the light of a brighter global spot after the occupation of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin, a close diplomatic partner of XI. Putin’s discourse on Ukraine has echoes about how Xi talks about Taiwan.
Beijing has recently tried to position himself as a peace agent in this conflict – especially for aiming to repair worn ties with Europe.
This week, TSAI is expected to meet with McCarthy, French President Emmanuel Macron and the President of the European Commission Ursula von Der Leyen, an important opportunity that Xi may not want to overshadow with a military stance.
An aggressive response was faced with the risk of preventing confrontation with the United States six months after XI and US President Joe Biden called on to develop communication during a face -to -face meeting in Bali.
Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute in London, said, (a less openly aggressive response) that Beijing does not want to raise tension to a level that can raise the risk of exiting tension with the United States. ”
“The reset in the US-China vineyards is not on the agenda, but not beyond the possibility of alleviating tension.”
US Ambassador ‘US Ambassador (August 2022)
