When and how could Gulf states retaliate against Iranian strikes?

Iran’s attacks are pushing Gulf countries towards a breaking point and forcing them to choose between restraint and retaliation.

Iran’s Gulf neighbors have been repeatedly targeted and hit by Iranian drones and missiles as part of the Islamic Republic’s retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli bombardment since late February.

The latest and perhaps most significant escalation in attacks on Iran’s neighbors came this week when Tehran launched retaliatory missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal following Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field.

Gulf states, from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait, have responded to Iran’s repeated attacks on their energy infrastructure with the following words: “a price must be paid“and attacks”we cannot remain unansweredBut so far they have not retaliated.

Analysts say this diplomatic and defensive posture cannot and will not last forever, noting that Gulf countries are now likely weighing when, where and how they can shift from a neutral stance to an aggressive stance.

Patience among Gulf states is clearly wearing thin, with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud warning early Thursday that tolerance for Iran’s attacks on his country and neighboring Gulf states is limited.

“I think it’s important for the Iranians to understand that the kingdom, as well as its partners who are under attack and beyond, have very significant capabilities and capabilities that they can implement if they choose.” he said.

“The patience shown is not unlimited. [the Iranians] Do you have one day, two days, one week? “I’m not going to wire that,” he added. CNBC requested further comment from the state department.

Analysts told CNBC that Gulf leaders face a difficult dilemma as Iran continues to target critical infrastructure in the region.

“Despite intense diplomatic efforts to remain neutral over the past two years, Gulf states find themselves squarely in Iran’s line of fire,” Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC on Wednesday. he said.

“Active steps to remain neutral, such as limiting US access to bases in the region, have done little to protect Gulf states from Iranian attacks. But any decision to take military action against Iran could lead to even worse retaliation from Iran,” he said.

The decision facing Gulf leaders falls between two main options, both of which carry significant risks: “Doubling down on diplomacy and defensive measures or turning to an offensive posture aimed at reducing Iran’s ability to launch attacks,” he added.

As the rhetoric against Iran becomes increasingly assertive, agreeing on a coordinated response will be difficult, with some states more affected than others.

UAE announced that it was targeted More than 2,000 Iranian drones and missiles Oman, which has traditionally had friendlier relations with Iran since the war began in late February, has been targeted to a much lesser extent. Israel, on the other hand, was targeted by Iran but its multi-layered air defenses largely protected it.

“If they do not respond to Iranian aggression, they risk losing their ability to create deterrence, which will encourage future Iranian attacks. Ultimately, if the Iranian regime survives this war, other cycles of conflict are likely to occur,” Alhasan said. stated in IISS analysis This week.

Gulf states have “multiple options” to conduct offensive operations against Iran, including allowing full operational access to U.S. airspace and bases. They have a range of precision strike abilities This could neutralize Iran’s missile or drone launchers as a defensive response to Iranian missile and drone attacks against them.

But such maneuvers could be operationally difficult and would “require active intelligence gathering and coordination with the United States and Israel, which are already active in Iranian airspace, to detect and neutralize the launchers, many of which are mobile or stealth.”

Another option would be for Gulf states to focus on easing the economic pain from the conflict, and given that Gulf states have a vital economic interest in restarting oil and gas shipments, they could choose to deploy alongside the United States to secure shipping through the largely blocked Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts caution that any retaliation could be undesirable and potentially disastrous, noting that Iran’s response could extend to attacks on critical civilian infrastructure.

Alhasan said, “Iran probably retains a significant inventory of UAVs that it can continue to deploy against the Gulf countries, which have proven costly and difficult to prevent. Iran may escalate tensions by imposing a dual blockade on the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, encouraging the Houthis, who have so far stayed out of the war, to relaunch attacks against the Gulf countries and maritime traffic in the Red Sea.” he said.

“Iran could also step up its attacks on vital civilian infrastructure, such as power plants or water desalination units. By doing so, it risks disastrous success, causing enough damage to push the Gulf states into a borderless attack,” he warned.