Iran war-induced fertilizer shortage threatens farm state Republicans
Garrett Mauch spreads manure as fertilizer over fields at his family’s farm in Lamar, Colorado, on January 21, 2026.
RJ Sangosti | Denver Post via Getty Images | Denver Post | Getty Images
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the war in Iran is increasing fertilizer prices, straining farmers’ budgets and threatening food prices to rise.
Now Democrats, trying to win U.S. midterm elections in November, see a new opportunity to overcome the affordability crisis and turn the tide after years of losses in crop- and livestock-producing states.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical fertilizer channel, containing approximately 50% of global nitrogen-rich urea fertilizers. Fertilizer Instituteindustry’s trade association. The strait has become virtually impassable since President Donald Trump launched the offensive, now in its third week, with no end in sight.
The shutdown caused a spike in fertilizer prices just ahead of planting season, potentially complicating decision-making for farmers across the United States. This comes on top of already low commodity prices that have persisted for years and are eating into farmers’ margins.
“We’re in uncharted territory,” Michigan farmer Matt Frostic, who sits on the board of directors of the National Corn Growers Association, said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s like code red.”
Frostic said it purchased critical nitrogen fertilizer. corn plantsAbout $350 per ton in January. The same product now costs close to $600 per ton, he said.
The dark outlook for the farms also comes eight months before midterm elections that could see Trump lose control of both the House and the Senate. Democrats trying to win competitive seats in agriculture-heavy states like Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska are jumping on high fertilizer prices as another example of the affordability problem that continues to plague Trump and Republicans.
“In our district, people like me say, ‘I don’t understand.’ I don’t understand you. “There are tons of people who say, ‘It was already hard, now they’re making it harder and no one knows why,'” he said. jake johnsonA public school teacher running for Congress in Minnesota’s first district against incumbent Republican Rep. Brad Finstad.
“Our number one job as a campaign, and what we want to talk to every single person we talk to, is that we need ways to make things cheaper,” Johnson said.
Democrats’ appeal from rural areas follows years of bloody support in rural, agricultural states in the middle of the country. Trump won nearly every state in the Midwest in 2024 except Minnesota and Illinois. He also dominated the district-based competition. Politics CenterShe won 2,660 counties compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 451 counties, concentrated in the most populous areas of the United States
Democrats want to win over rural America
Turning the tide on rural America has long been a goal for Democrats, but it has often proven elusive. In Iowa in 2018, Democrats won 3 of the state’s 4 congressional seats. Republicans now control all four. But Democrats have high hopes this year, as Trump’s economic support is falling rapidly and Democrats are ahead in the popular vote.
Johnson said farmers in particular were scared of Trump’s policies The tariff campaign resulted in the White House authorizing a nearly $12 billion rescue package last year. The war is now adding a new inflationary wrinkle.
“A vote for me is a vote to end tariffs, and that’s a vote to end the war,” he said. “We must start by undoing the obvious damage that the status quo inflicts on us.”
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump performs at the Iowa caucus vigil party on January 15, 2024 in Des Moines, Iowa, USA.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Republicans, meanwhile, are pushing to provide even more aid to farmers just months after last year’s aid. An additional farmer bailout, estimated at about $15 billion, was being discussed before the war began to address low crop prices, and lawmakers are now trying to include it in a potential Iran supplemental spending bill. The White House is requesting $200 billion in spending for the war.
“It will clearly be an addition to the conflict in Iran,” Sen. John Hoeven (R.N.D.), who chairs the Senate Appropriations subcommittee responsible for funding the Department of Agriculture, said in an interview.
For such a package to be approved in the Senate, Hoeven said he expects more than war spending will need to be included. He mentioned disaster relief and aid to farmers, which Democrats want, as possible add-ons.
Finding fertilizer price solution
“The good news is that everyone understands how much of a problem this is for our farmers,” Boozman said in an interview. “So everything is on the table. We are looking at all available options and hopefully we will decide on a plan soon.”
Boozman did not detail what those plans would be. His House counterpart, Rep. GT Thompson, R-Ark., said Trump is trying to work “aggressively” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Thompson noted Trump’s efforts to “sue other countries to ensure that shipping ships and tankers can pass safely through this narrow strip.”
He also said that all tariffs on fertilizer should be eliminated before the planting season.
“We really shouldn’t be taxing fertilizer or any ingredient,” he said.
Speaking to Fox Business on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins will “probably make an announcement on fertilizer in the next few days.”
Trump tariffs largely exempt nitrogen-based fertilizer, which is critical for growing corn, Bessent noted.
But despite efforts to free stranded cargo ships, opening the strait to allow fertilizer to flow is a difficult task for the administration. Risks continue to rise for U.S. farmers and food consumers.
“Unless the distribution of critical farm inputs such as urea, ammonia, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfur-based products is not strategically prioritized, the United States faces the risk of crop failure,” American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said in a recent letter to Trump. “Not only is this a threat to our food security and therefore our national security, such a production shock could contribute to inflationary pressures across the U.S. economy.”
Agriculture price shocks similar to 2022
Joe Glauber, former chief economist at the Department of Agriculture under the Obama administration and a research fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said the shock was similar to when Russia invaded Ukraine, but noted that the commodity price increases that accompanied it have now disappeared.
“We have reached record highs in 2022,” Glauber said. “But the other thing that was really high in 2022 was grain prices, and farmers were more or less able to get by because they were getting good returns on what they sold, even if they were paying really high fertilizer costs.”
Glauber said farmers are right to worry if they’re only thinking about their bottom line — what they grow and what they sell. But he noted that the influx in government payments to farmers, as currently being considered in Congress, has been huge in recent years.
“If you add in government payments, it’s a different story,” Glauber said. “And there were a ton of government payments.”
Michigan farmer Frostic said he aims for Congress to pass a “consumer choice” bill that would allow drivers to buy ethanol gasoline, known as E15, year-round. Ethanol is generally priced cheaper than regular gasoline, and the bill would potentially increase prices of the commodity by giving farmers a new market in which to sell.
While Frostic said that he was grateful for the government payments, he said that the rescue package may be insufficient and that he would prefer to make money by selling his crops.
“I would rather sell my products and make money than have the government write me a check to make me whole,” he said. “It distorts the market a lot, it can pick winners and losers, and usually when we get those types of checks it’s a pass.”
