The South Australian Liberals aren’t just staring down defeat. They’re facing a wipeout

Just after dawn, as Adelaide commuters shuffle between traffic updates and chats, the attack ad cuts to FIVEAA’s breakfast show.

“It’s been a busy four years for the Liberals,” the audio begins, and then focuses on the turmoil, “four leaders in four years,” and then the scandals. One former MP was “convicted of serious drug offences”, another was “charged with domestic violence” and one was “even jailed for theft”. It ends on a bitter note: “They say they’re tough on crime… All this in just four years. Imagine four more years.”

It is ruthless, unrelenting and – what Liberals privately acknowledge – disturbingly effective.

At polling stations around Adelaide this week, Liberal volunteers reported being repeatedly called a “mess” by voters; This word was used heavily in the advertisements of Prime Minister Peter Malinauskas. An anecdote circulating on Talkback shows a volunteer who was so disheartened by the pre-poll that he was consoled by a Labor colleague after he struggled to find people to take his how-to-vote cards.

As 1.3 million South Australians head to the polls, the state’s Liberal Party isn’t just upset about the defeat. It faces the prospect of a generational extinction that could reshape conservative politics across the country, test One Nation’s electoral ceiling and intensify internal fissures that have been simmering for years.

Elected as leader just 100 days before election day, Ashton Hurn becomes the fourth Liberal to take power in as many years, following Vincent Tarzia’s underwhelming tenure and the collapse of David Speirs’ leadership over the cocaine scandal.

Praised internally as talented and hard-working, the 35-year-old is nevertheless expected to inflict the party’s heaviest defeat in a generation; This is probably the worst result since Labour’s defeat following the collapse of the State Bank in 1993.

A new experimental AI survey conducted by Resolve Political Monitor on March 16 underlines the scale of the problem. The survey of 1,112 registered voters also included a phone call and an AI voice among the respondents; 31 per cent gave Labor their first preference, followed by One Nation on 28 per cent, the Liberals on 18 per cent, the Greens on 10 per cent and others on 11 per cent. There is a margin of error of 2.9 percent.

This trend reflects not only the weakness of the Liberals but also the strength of the Labor Party.

The government led by Malinauskas enters the campaign with extraordinary levels of popular support. Strong economic growth combined with aggressive pursuit of major events from the AFL Gather Round to LIV Golf and MotoGP has left Labor in a seemingly impregnable position.

Even security vulnerabilities were hard to overcome. Labor paid little political price for failing to “fix” ambulance ramps despite them being a centerpiece of the 2022 campaign; Rising government debt, however, did little to harm its standing with voters.

The selection table is very clear. The Liberals are defending just 13 of 47 seats in the lower house of parliament and are at risk in both metropolitan Adelaide and parts of the rural heartland. Labor’s grip on the city appears solid. In regions, the threat is more complex: a nation on one side, independents on the other, and shifting streams of preferences cutting across both.

As Clement Macintyre, emeritus professor of politics at the University of Adelaide, puts it: “This is not a standard election in South Australia… We’re not used to the polls paying as much attention to the third party as we’ve seen for One Nation.”

He says the surge reflects a familiar Liberal dilemma.

“Is the Liberal Party currently ‘appealing to the more conservative wing in the countryside?’ stuck in between. Or is he ‘trying to take back the cities with his more moderate and smaller liberal policies?’”

This tension, which has defined the party for decades, remains unresolved. All week long, Malinauskas has deftly reminded voters of the differences between the provincial and federal Liberals in parliament on issues such as Indigenous Voices and net zero.

South Australia has long produced uneven results. Since Thomas Playford’s 26-year reign ended in 1965, the Liberals have been in government for only 17½ of the last 56 years. Labor typically dominated metropolitan Adelaide, winning enough city seats, often by narrow margins, to offset large Liberal majorities in the regions.

This balance has shifted further against the Liberals. The Liberals’ rural base is splintering as Labor pushes deeper into once-safe suburban territory; independents face challenges due to candidate debates and now growing One Nation votes.

Despite this increase, converting support into seats is another matter.

South Australia’s electoral geography and preferential voting work against smaller parties in the lower house. Labor is expected to shift its preferences towards the Liberals ahead of One Nation; That means challengers must either come first in primary votes or surpass both major parties after the preferences.

“My gut feeling is that I don’t think One Nation will win seats in South Australia’s lower house,” says Macintyre. “But I could be wrong about that.”

Either way, the Liberals are stuck; they are funneling votes to One Nation while still relying on Labor preferences for their survival.

The party’s problems are not just electoral but cumulative.

Hurn’s rise in December was widely seen internally as overdue, but it did not stop his slide in the polls. He came to the fore in a weak shadow cabinet, but policy changes and the legacy of three leadership changes in a single term (riven by scandals) continue to affect the party’s fortunes.

This pressure was further increased by events during the campaign.

Halfway through, the party was forced to leave the party after candidate Carston Woodhouse was revealed to have “shocking and extreme” views, including comments published on a podcast about abortion, gay marriage, gender reassignment and feminism.

Hurn initially stood by him before reversing course within 24 hours.

The episode revealed deeper tensions. Liberal senator Alex Antic, a leading figure in the Conservative group, defended Woodhouse and warned that if candidates were dismissed due to such arguments, “we would be better off closing the doors on this election with a week left.” Antic also openly flirts with the idea of ​​defecting to One Nation.

Hurn continued the ongoing reset in the Barossa Valley town of Tanunda this week.

He insisted that the Liberals focus their campaigns on the cost of living and health rather than internal debates, arguing that voters gravitate towards parties focused on practical concerns. There’s too much “navel gazing” going on in politics, he says.

“Obviously I’m not going to be one of those politicians who is a commentator,” he says, describing himself as focused on “bread and butter” issues and arguing that voting for One Nation only entrenches Labor and encourages chaos.

There is an acceptance within the party that it may now be too late. More positive forecasts predict just eight seats, but some fear the nightmare scenario of being left with three or fewer seats. Metro seats at risk for Labor include Unley, Hartley, Morphett and Colton.

South Australian Liberal Party leader Leah Blyth, a senator, is blunt.

“I kind of complain and if he [Hurn] Blyth, a member of the party’s conservative wing, says he has more time.

He argues that Hurn improved as the campaign progressed and could have been made into a different competition with a longer runway. But he accepts a broader challenge.

Blyth says Labor has made “a lot of broken promises”, particularly on ambulance ramping. But the Liberals also “did not deliver on what we said we would do”.

Rebuilding trust will require a return to basics – economic management and lower taxes – so the party “takes less from hard-working South Australians and allows them to keep more in their pockets”.

But Resolve pollster Jim Reed says the shift appears durable, noting that One Nation retained its support into the final week and has the potential to convert into regional seats such as Narungga and Mount Gambier, with 28 per cent of the vote, and outside potential in Flinders, MacKillop and Chaffey.

“Labour will still be doing well in Adelaide, but this result will mean One Nation will pick up some seats in the lower house, especially at a time when the Liberals are steering preferences their way,” he says.

“Labour voters vote for Malinauskas because they think he’s doing well, the rest of the Liberals vote against him because they think he isn’t, and One Nation voters vote against them all for greater change.”

This expectation gives the result national significance. This is shaping up to be the clearest test yet of whether One Nation’s support will translate into seats and whether the Coalition faces a structural challenge on its right flank.

Discussion about the future is no longer included in the liberal ranks.

Some believe the party needs to win back voters who have shifted to One Nation and sharpen its message on the cost of living and law and order. Another warns that going after these voters risks alienating moderates and fueling rumors of centrist splits — divisions that could further weaken the party.

Some senior Liberals contacted by this imprint said Hurn deserved everyone’s support but there would be “blood on the walls” after the election.

Both sides agree on one point: The party cannot continue this way.

Rob Manwaring, an associate professor at Flinders University, says the Liberals face a deeper post-election reckoning.

“I think they’re in a world of pain,” he says, pointing to three key problems: loss of leadership, ongoing factional infighting and an inefficient voting base.

Structurally, he says, the Liberals’ votes are “locked in regional and more rural areas”, while Labor’s votes are distributed more efficiently, leaving Hurn with a party hall that “doesn’t really appeal very much” to inner-city voters.

In Tanunda, Hurn is proposing renewal. But for many voters, the decision of the last four years is already clear. The only question remaining is the extent of the damage.

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