Chart of the Week: Diesel Truck Stop Actual Gallon Price, National Truckload Index – USA SONAR: DTS.USA, NTI.USA
The average retail price of diesel (DTS), the primary fuel source for Class 8 trucks, has increased more than 41% since March 2. The average spot rate for dry van truckloads (NTI in orange) increased by 7.5% over the same period, creating a very strong positive correlation of 0.7, meaning they move together quite well. However, this is not always the case. In March 2022, the correlation reversed to -0.8, meaning the two are moving in opposite directions at almost the same rate. This shows that fuel prices do not always drive truckload pricing movements. So what is the relationship between the two?
Correlation is one of the most misused statistics. The famous adage is that correlation does not mean causation and the world is full of spurious or coincidental correlations. This isn’t entirely true when it comes to fuel and truckload rates, but like most things, it’s complicated. Underlying market value is what determines a carrier’s ability to cover its costs.
Fuel costs make up roughly 25% of a truck’s total operating cost, but that figure fluctuates as costs change. Fuel costs dropped from 28% to 21% of total operating costs between 2022 and 2024, according to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI). The key takeaway here is that fuel represents a significant portion of operating costs, even if its exact share varies.
When fuel prices rise sharply, so does the impact on trucking costs. The majority of truckload shipments occur under long-term pricing agreements between shippers and service providers. A portion of fuel costs is allocated as a variable surcharge based on the average price of diesel (typically the weekly DOE figure); therefore, short-term fuel price changes do not affect contract rates because these costs are transferred separately.
In the spot market that NTI measures, rates are generally priced as all-inclusive totals with no component deductions. Since all information regarding loads and costs reflects current conditions, there is no need to separate costs into components. The price is what the market will bear at that moment.
In 2022, the truckload market was at the beginning of the collapse. The market value of trucking services was near all-time highs, driven by a severe imbalance between supply and demand; freight demand far exceeded available capacity.
Demand (STVI in yellow) fell sharply in March 2022; many shippers have found that months of overordering are finally catching up with them. Quarantines during the pandemic period were largely lifted and product consumption was decreasing. Meanwhile, truckload capacity had increased significantly in the previous two years.
More than 131,000 new motor vehicle operating authorities (white CDTAs) were created from June 2020 to October 2022; That’s compared to about 104,000 created over the past decade, from January 2010 to June 2020. While these figures are not representative of individual drivers, they reflect a host of new carriers competing for what is now much less of a burden, collapsing the market value of their services and leaving them unable to make additional transfers. costs.
The pie chart above is based on ATRI’s 2024 report and excludes back office and overhead functions in larger fleets. Fuel costs averaged $0.48 per mile (21%) that year; that figure has since risen to over $0.77 per mile assuming fuel efficiency of around 7 miles per gallon. With all other costs held constant, fuel will account for approximately 30% of total operating costs today.
The chart is also missing a measure of profit or loss. During a severe outage cycle, carriers often fail to generate enough revenue to cover their costs for many loads, pushing them to find efficiencies in their networks. A carrier whose cost was $2.26 per mile could only manage $2.25. The opposite was true during the pandemic; In 2021, operating costs were around $1.85 per mile, while spot market revenues averaged close to $3.21 per mile.
Therefore, when fuel prices rose during this period, the market value was also falling at the same time and profit margins were rapidly shrinking.
The current market is different. Truckload service values are increasing; Before the latest jump in oil prices, spot prices were already an average of 13% higher on an annual basis compared to January and February 2025; this reflected shippers’ need to offer higher prices to secure capacity. Carriers are now in a better position to absorb higher costs in the spot market.
However, this is not always the case. The cost of running a truck has risen more than 30% since 2019, but spot prices over the same period rose only about 10% around the holidays last year. A cost increase does not automatically translate into a price increase; This is a fact that is true in many industries, not just trucking.
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a selection of charts from the list below: SONAR This provides an interesting data point to explain the state of freight markets. A graph is selected from thousands of potential graphs. SONAR Helping participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will publish a chart with commentary live on the front page. Going forward, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
