Progressive Democrats risk pushing party out of national contention

Democrats are undoubtedly favored to retake the House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections, and their chances of taking the Senate have also increased in recent weeks.

Political betting site Polymarket gives Democrats an 86% chance of taking the House of Representatives, and they now even have a slight lead in the Senate.

However, Democrats’ short-term success could overshadow what could be a defining moment in American politics.

Specifically, Democrats’ internal party debate over which wing of the party will control their direction, messaging, ideas, and principles: the ostensibly moderate establishment or the anti-establishment progressives.

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This struggle will also determine who will be the flag bearer of the party in the 2028 Presidential elections.

This is not a new conflict, but it has taken on renewed importance as the midterms approach (not to mention the 2028 campaign begins to take shape).

The “No to Kings” rally launched by the far-left wing at the end of April was embraced by both wings of the party and underlined the increasing influence of the party’s extreme wing on tactics, strategy and messaging.

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Moreover, progressive Sens. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Reports have emerged indicating that Sen. and Tina Smith, D-Minn., met to gauge support for impeaching Sen. Chuck Schumer as Senate minority leader.

Schumer appears to be the latest casualty in a war that has metastasized to include all Democrats as the entire party moves further to the left.

Unfortunately for those of us who believe the health of American democracy depends on two viable parties, national Democrats may be setting themselves up for electoral suicide as the far left pushes the party further away from the center.

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In other words, to be competitive, establishment Democrats need to assert themselves with a more moderate agenda, rejecting progressive ideas on transgender policies, ICE, and current issues like immigration, diversity, equality, inclusion, and more.

Of course, today’s establishment Democrats are a far cry from those who were considered moderates not so long ago.

You Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, DY, held a press conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC, on March 25, 2026, to announce the AI ​​Data Center Moratorium Act. (Thoss Katopodis/Getty Images)

When I worked for former President Bill Clinton, Democrats understood that policies like balancing the budget, securing the border, tightening welfare requirements, and getting tough on crime were necessary to win.

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In an indication of how far left the Democratic Party has moved, former President Barack Obama, whom many liberals venerate today, initially openly opposed gay marriage and race-based identity politics.

Obama’s initial opposition to these policies would put him at complete odds with the direction progressives are taking the Democratic Party today.

Even former President Joe Biden ran as a moderate in 2020.

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Of course, today’s establishment Democrats are a far cry from those who were considered moderates not so long ago.

He then demonstrated progressive governance and tarnished his administration to the point where the vice president lost the popular vote; This is something no Democrat has done in 20 years.

In other words, despite the Democrats’ significant shift to the left, today’s so-called moderates should serve as a bulwark against the slide toward national irrelevance. Failure to do so would be a level of irresponsibility that the country cannot afford.

To this point, despite numerous studies including Third Way and Split Ticket showing moderate Democrats outperforming progressives in competitive races, the Democratic Party continues to drift away from the average voter.

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Consider that in recent weeks, when the Senate passed a proposal banning transgender women from participating in women’s sports, every Democratic senator present voted against it.

It looks like these Senators and the party at large have learned nothing from the 2024 campaign.

Then-candidate Donald Trump’s “Kamala is for them, I’m for you” ad was, for lack of a better word, devastating for Vice President Kamala Harris.

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Even when California Governor Gavin Newsom (a Democrat who no one thought was a moderate but reached out to Republicans for his podcast) had the audacity to say he opposed girls playing against biological boys, progressives belittled him.

The risk that the far left will knock Democrats out of the race in national elections goes beyond transgender issues.

This is not a new conflict, but it has taken on renewed importance as the midterms approach (not to mention the 2028 campaign begins to take shape).

Progressive ideas on the economy, immigration and ICE, Israel and more may work in local elections, but they are resounding failures on the national stage and will destroy Democrats’ chances in 2028.

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Ironically, Democratic voters are accepting this, even though their elected officials have yet to accept it, except for a handful such as Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman and New Jersey Representative Josh Gottheimer.

Gallup polling shows that Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independent voters generally prefer moderates to progressives when considering their vote.

Likewise, as journalist Matthew Yglesias has noted, Democrats’ “brand has become so toxic” that the party may need to “rebrand” by abandoning extreme and unpopular progressive positions.

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., questions former executives of failed banks during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill on May 16, 2023 in Washington. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

To be clear, this doesn’t mean progressives can’t compete. Progressives will certainly win in blue states and districts like New Jersey’s 11th state or Illinois and other states.

Rather, it is to make clear that if the 2024 elections do not occur, Democrats need centrist, broad-based coalitions at the national level and a cohesive agenda to win.

But Democrats still appear ready to let the far left determine the party’s direction, leaving a rapidly shrinking moderate minority.

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In fact, progressives’ obsession with wealth taxes has made Newsom appear to be a so-called moderate in opposing the tax on the grounds that it could seriously harm state economies.

Similarly, calls to defund ICE—like “defund the police” beforehand—have become such a popular slogan for the far left that moderates who simply want reform to overreach are increasingly silenced.

If progressives succeed in rebranding the Democratic Party as the party of open borders, the Green New Deal, identity politics, and abandoning Israel, Republicans will be in the presidency for the foreseeable future.

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A few brave Democrats, including Fetterman and Gottheimer, opposed cutting off all military and economic aid to the Jewish state and recognized that Israel, though imperfect, is our most capable and vital ally in the Middle East.

To that end, there is considerable evidence that progressives are rapidly consolidating their power.

The latest Yahoo poll shows Newsom (19%) with a slight lead over Harris (18%).

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To be clear, this doesn’t mean progressives can’t compete. Progressives will certainly win in blue states and districts like New Jersey’s 11th state or Illinois and other states.

Behind the two leading names is the former Transport Sec. Pete Buttigieg (13%) and “Squad” member Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12%) – both progressives.

Ocasio-Cortez probably has the broadest appeal of any non-senator or former presidential candidate.

Its fundraising base is unprecedented: A $15.4 million war chest last year. the biggest It made nearly $10 million in the House in the first quarter alone.

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Axios’ report also suggested he could raise “$100 million online without a single in-person fundraiser,” while noting that he could compete against any Democrat in a presidential or senate election.

Critically, both the growing power of progressives and the imperative for established Democrats to recapture the center arise from the same reasons.

For the last decade, Democrats have managed to bridge their differences with the simple but supposedly effective strategy of opposing Trump.

However, despite the potential for short-term success in midterm elections, the mere ability to oppose an unpopular president is not enough to sustain a political party.

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To win national elections going forward, Democrats need to build coalitions and not allow progressives to push the party out of the mainstream with unpopular and allegedly unworkable policies.

If progressives succeed in rebranding the Democratic Party as the party of open borders, the Green New Deal, identity politics, and abandoning Israel, Republicans will be in the presidency for the foreseeable future.

Quite simply, Trump won 86% of the counties in this country, and Republicans control 28 state Houses and Democrats control 18.

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Our country is much closer to the center than progressives believe, as evidenced by the fact that there are states where Democrats, tainted by the progressive agenda, are unable to meaningfully participate in statewide elections.

This struggle for control of the party leadership and agenda is a defining divide in American politics. How this plays out will be decisive this fall and, more importantly, in 2028.

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