U.S. Intelligence Warns Iran Unlikely To Ease Hormuz Strait Chokehold Soon, Sources Say

WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) – Latest U.S. intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz any time soon, according to three sources familiar with the matter; Iran’s dominance of the world’s most vital oil artery provides its only real influence over the United States, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

The findings suggest Tehran may continue to tighten the strait to keep energy prices high as a way to pressure US President Donald Trump to find a quick exit to the nearly five-week war that remains popular with US voters.

The reports also offer the latest indication that the war, which aims to eliminate Iran’s military power, could actually increase its regional influence by demonstrating Tehran’s ability to threaten the important waterway.

Trump has sought to downplay the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world’s oil trade. He suggested he might order US forces to reopen the crossing on Friday.

“With a little more time, we can easily open the HORUZ STRAIT, get the oil and make a fortune,” he said on the Truth Social platform.

But analysts have long warned that trying to use force against Iran, which controls one side of the strait, could be costly and draw the United States into a protracted land war.

“In order to try to prevent Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction, the United States gave Iran weapons of mass destruction,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the conflict prevention organization International Crisis Group.

Vaez said Tehran understands that its ability to manipulate world energy markets through its influence in the strait is “much more powerful than even a nuclear weapon.”

Trump’s stance on possible US intervention in reopening the strait has changed. On the one hand, he made ending the stranglehold in Iran a precondition for the ceasefire, but then called on oil-dependent countries in the Gulf and NATO allies to lead the reopening of the ceasefire.

A White House official, who requested anonymity, said Trump was “confident that the strait will be opened very soon” and made clear that Iran would not be allowed to regulate traffic through the waterway after the war.

But the official noted that Trump also said other countries “have a much greater risk than the United States of preventing this outcome.”

The CIA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Iran’s outgunned Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has used a variety of tactics to make commercial passage through the waterway too dangerous or uninsurable since Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a war on Feb. 28.

From attacking civilian ships and releasing mines to demanding tolls, Iran has effectively blocked traffic through the strait, causing world oil prices to rise to their highest levels in decades and causing fuel shortages in countries dependent on Gulf oil and gas.

Rising energy costs risk fueling inflation in the United States and pose a political liability for Trump as he faces dismal poll numbers and the Republican Party’s candidacy for the midterm congressional elections in November.

Recent intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to give up that influence any time soon, according to three sources. They declined to provide detailed information about which institutions prepared the evaluations.

“Iran will definitely not give it up anytime soon as it has tasted its power and influence over the strait,” one of the sources said. All three requested anonymity to discuss intelligence reports.

Many experts say the military operation to reopen the waterway poses significant risks.

The waterway separates Iran and Oman. It is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is only 2 miles (3 km) wide in either direction, making ships and troops easy targets.

Even if U.S. forces capture Iran’s southern coast and islands, the Revolutionary Guard could attack them and maintain control of the waterway with drones and missiles launched from deep within Iran, experts say.

“All it takes is one or two drones to disrupt traffic and prevent ships from passing,” Vaez said.

Some experts have said Iran is unlikely to give up its ability to regulate traffic across the strait even after the war because it will need to rebuild, and collecting commercial shipping tolls could be a way to increase reconstruction funds.

Tehran will try to maintain their rediscovered influence by disrupting traffic in the strait, former CIA Director Bill Burns said in a State Department podcast on Thursday.

He said Iran would seek to use its ability to narrow the waterway to obtain “long-term deterrence and security guarantees” in any peace deal with the United States and “some direct material benefits,” such as charging tolls to finance its post-war recovery.

“This,” he said, “sets the stage for a really difficult negotiation right now.”

(Reporting by Jonathan Landay, Erin Banco and Phil Stewart; Editing by Don Durfee and David Gaffen)