UBS has surprising message for gold investors after recent weakness

Gold had a difficult March to say the least, but UBS He doesn’t back down.
The Swiss bank reiterated its bullish call for the king metal by doubling gold prices and prices averaged $5,000 per ounce inside 2026keep close $4,800 inside 2027 And $4,250 inside 2028.

But even after the sharp decline in March, UBS is forecasting a significant rise. It’s a notable call given how quickly market sentiment is changing.

Gold fell hard 14% in Marchremained under pressure and renewed due to rising bond yields and a strengthening US dollar inflation Concerns are increasing due to rising oil prices. Naturally, such moves raise questions about whether the rally is on track.

However, UBS evaluates this differently.

The bank thinks the long-term story remains unchanged and that recent market weakness is a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign.

The safe-haven metal was cut in April after it published its report. Worst month since 2008 As interest rate cut hopes fade in March, Reuters noted.

For context, Reuters A snapshot of market data (April 4) revealed that spot gold is trading at the following level: $4,675.67.

Gold entered the month with confidence and recovered by 3.2 percent. March 31 -most $4,652.31 per ounce. Then he jumped again April 1 with $4,784.22It reached its highest level since March 19 WEdollar We continue to weaken and hope Reducing tension in the Middle East took it.

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However, this move did not yield as clear results as investors had hoped.

Gold is on the rise April 2 aspect dollar strengthened, oil spiked went up $100Inflation concerns rose again after President Donald Trump offered a clear timeline for ending the Iran conflict. Market Screen was stated.

So far, April has been a tug of war between safe-haven demand and fears of long-term high rates.

Gold and silver return over time

UBS reveals a trend towards weakness.

In a recent note sent to the customer, the bank explained that recent retreat It doesn’t change the big picture.

“The risk of extending gold’s bull run for another few years is increasing,” UBS said, pointing to the macro structure that still favors the bright yellow metal.

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The bank argues that if there are any signs of a slowdown in global growth, this could trigger fiscal or monetary stimulus, which would likely translate into strong gains for gold.

Lower real odds and solid liquidity It will push investors towards non-returnable assets such as bullion.

Moreover, according to UBS, the latest decline is more of a positioning reset.

“We believe any pullback presents an opportunity for investors to build positions,” UBS added, underlining the view that such declines should be bought rather than feared.

As a result, UBS hasn’t backed away from its broad outlook for gold to rebound to new highs this year, even after slightly lowering its 2026 average price forecast.

Gold’s recent stagnation has not been shaken Wall Street‘s long-term belief in the bright yellow metal.

Leading banks still see significant upside even in the short term volatility This keeps investors on their toes.

Although we see the speculative crowd calming down a bit, gold’s macro outlook remains impressive.

Latest figures show official sector demand remains in the green as ETF buyers continue to increase their visibility.

Futures traders are still reducing their bullish bets, but overall this looks like a reset in sentiment rather than a break in demand.

• Central banks are still buyingaccordingly gold.org. Banks collected net 19 metric tons gold inside Februaryafter it becomes clear 5 tons in January. This falls short of the previous 12-month average 27 tonsHe emphasized that the broader reserve diversification trend remains intact.

• ETF money still coming, gold.org was stated. Added global physically backed gold ETFs $5.3 billion inside Februarytaking the winning streak uninterrupted entry for nine months. Thereupon, holdings jumped 26 tons to a record 4,171 tonsAssets under management rise to all-time high $701 billion.

• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) positioning has cooled but remains bullish. Inside COMEX Gold futures are held by non-commercial investors 207,602 long contracts And 44,400 short contracts as of March 31leaving the net for a long time 163,202 contracts. Though this was down there 5,125 contracts Compared to the previous week, the risks of the market have clearly decreased.

Gold’s next macro entry will occur in the next few days.

The results are important because they show how the data affects interest rate cuts, yields and the dollar.

• Fed minutes, April 8: Fed keeps interest rates steady 3.5% to 3.75% In March. If the minutes show the committee leaning further hawkThis could potentially multiply gold and create pressure surrender expectations.

• Consumer Price Index (CPI), 10 April: The latest CPI report showed: Headline inflation is at 2.4% on an annual basis And core inflation 2.5% In February, Bureau of Labor Statistics was stated. If we see softer pressure in March, this could lead to renewed easing hopes and pave the way for stronger gold performance.

• Jobs report, May 8: March salaries increased 178,000, unemployment rate kept constant 4.3%and average hourly earnings increased 3.5% from year to year. A cooler labor force report will naturally support gold.

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This story was first published by . Street First appeared on April 6, 2026 Investment section. Add TheStreet at: Preferred Source by clicking here.