👋 Good morning! Aspect the song sayswhat a difference one day makes.
The two-week pause in hostilities has caused oil to return to the mid-90s and stockpiles to the right as the Strait of Hormuz creaks open and ships try to figure out whether it is safe to cross the strait. The details of safe passage are part of a very fragile peace that remains a risk for markets.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 2.5%, the Nasdaq (^IXIC) gained 2.8% and the Dow (^DJI) gained 2.9%.
On this morning’s agenda:
✌️ Where is the situation regarding Iran?
✈️ Delta knows people will grit their teeth and pay more
💰 New crypto use case unlocked: Iran’s toll booth
👖 Levi’s says the CBK effect is very real.
₿ NYT thinks he found Mr. Bitcoin
📆 What we will watch on Thursday: Today we have the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation for February. This is a pre-oil shock, although it is the Fed’s preferred barometer. Still, we’ll be paying close attention to this and the day’s other economic data for any moves.
🏡 HELOCs have changed. Some landlords may not like the new rules.
🤖 Meta launches Muse Spark AI model as part of AI comeback. It is the first company of Meta’s “Super Intelligence Laboratory”.
🏷️ Inflation expectations could improve rapidly if Strait of Hormuz reopens. A new study from the Dallas Fed has increased pressure on a successful ceasefire.
🍪 BofA raised its 2026 chip forecast to $1.3 trillion, citing Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell and AMD as top drivers. The AI gold rush is still a hot topic.
💰 Will Social Security really go bankrupt in 2035? This is exactly what happens.
🏦 Here are the takeaways from the March Fed minutes. Officials have seen the Iran war increase inflation and delay interest rate cuts.
💳Generation Z is opening more credit cards and seeing their credit scores drop. They are shaking.
🍏 Apple stock is the new retail investor darling. Tuesday was the stock’s best net buying day since June 2025.
📈 US-Iran ceasefire is sending investors back to their favorite stocks. “Mag 7” anyone?
🍔 McDonald’s is being eaten alive by the revamped Burger King Whopper. The fast food wars are getting interesting.
See what else is trending Yahoo Finance.
A boat overlooks the Strait of Hormuz, administered by Musandam, on the coast of Musandam province, Oman, April 8, 2026. (Reuters) ·Reuters / Reuters
The first day of the ceasefire between the USA and Iran started with many uncertainties. At the heart of the conflict is Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But where President Trump says temporary peace will include the full reopening of waterways, the reality is much more limited. So far.
Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency claimed that tanker traffic was “stopped” as Israel continued to attack Lebanon, and Iran told mediators that only a limited number of ships would be allowed to pass through the strait each day.
The United States, Israel and Iran have conflicting positions on whether non-aggression in Lebanon is part of the ceasefire agreement. However, attacks continue from both sides.
According to reports from Persian Gulf countries, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks on its behalf.
The White House maintains that any halt to ship traffic would be “completely unacceptable.” Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance will travel to Pakistan this weekend for peace talks.
Read more.
A Delta Air Lines jet airliner taxis to the runway for takeoff from Denver International Airport on March 20, 2026. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) ·RELATED PRESS
Delta’s first-class seat game has been so successful that it leads the industry in profits by taking a key feature of the country’s K-shaped economy and turning it into a business model.
However, according to the company’s earnings report released on Wednesday, executives are optimistic about each class. Did someone say main cabin enlargement?
Delta posted positive unit revenue growth in its main economy cabin for the first time in more than a year. Of course, premium tickets, corporate trips and loyalty rewards are driving most of the growth. But even as airlines raise ticket fares and increase baggage fees to offset rising fuel costs tied to the Iran war, CEO Ed Bastian said there is “broad strength across customer segments, geographies and products.”
Saying that customers in an industry will grit their teeth and pay more for the same service is not a very convincing sales pitch.
But similar to the K-shaped economy, this may be a defining characteristic of this economic moment. Just as airlines sit at a key nexus of haves and have-nots, wealth and price sensitivity, carriers like Delta know it’s hard for travelers to say no, given limited consumer choice and the omnipresence of inflation.
Delta’s strength is all the more remarkable because, oil shock aside, the airlines were already in a miserable moment with the Washington funding war that left TSA agents without pay for weeks, caused massive security lines at airports, canceled flights and customers avoiding air travel to reach their destinations.
Delta did not disclose the financial impact of the TSA cuts. But the slowdown in business travel during the funding chaos has since reversed, the company said. And it could get even better: The latest corporate survey results cited by Delta show that 85% of respondents expect corporate travel spending to increase or stay the same in the June quarter.
What about the rising cost of fuel?
Read the rest here.
Oil tankers and high-speed boats anchor at Muscat Anchorage near the Strait of Hormuz on March 30, 2026 in Muscat, Oman, while a police speedboat patrols the port. (Elke Scholiers/Getty Images) ·Elke Scholiers via Getty Images
An important provision of Iran’s 10-point peace plan is that Tehran will establish an official toll booth to collect fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The regime has proposed charging $1 per barrel for tankers passing through the waterway. In what currency will payments be made? Cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrency prices rose shortly after the Financial Times reported Iran’s preferred payment method.
Although it has not been announced which digital currency Iranians will accept, Bitcoin is up 3% to trade above $71,700, while Ethereum is up 4%.
While the proposal would be a boon for crypto bulls, the broader proposal for fee-based transit will be difficult for many oil exporters in the region to accept.
This is because such a provision would give Iran new powers it did not have before the conflict began, giving the country a degree of control over the flow of energy in a major economic and political upheaval. And by doing so, it gives the regime the appearance of victory in this war.
Read more.
“Consumers are still spending, businesses are still investing… There is a concern that this could push inflation up: This is our job, we will focus on this.
“There’s a concern that the labor market isn’t that robust, but we’re not seeing that, we’re seeing that it’s settled in a good place.”
—San Francisco Fed President Mary DalySt. in Utah George County Chamber of Commerce
John F. Kennedy Jr. and his wife, Carolyn Bessette Kennedy, walk with their dog in New York City on January 1, 1997. (Evan Agostini/Contact) ·Evan Agostini via Getty Images
Calvin Klein, FX/Hulu’s JFK Jr. and plays a central character in Carolyn Bessette’s “Love Story,” which aired in the first quarter. But it was Levi’s who proved the unlikely benefactor of the show’s trip to ’90s New York.
According to Levi’s CEO Michelle Gass, the company has seen “a 25% increase in our iconic 517s, famously worn by Carolyn Bessette and featured on the popular ‘Love Story’ show.”
Social media heralded a “CBK summer” as people rediscovered Carolyn Bessette Kennedy’s iconic style. While fashion brands come and go, this is the payoff of being an icon. Seasons may come and go, but if you have an icon in your portfolio, if you wait long enough, a boomerang moment will occur.
Read more.
New York Times investigative reporter John Carreyrou and artificial intelligence expert Dylan Freedman delve into the communications troves of the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto to get to the bottom of Bitcoin’s biggest mystery: Who actually invented it?
The report consists of 10,000 words and is based on the identity of the person identified, namely British cryptographer Dr. It adds serious uncertainty to the question of whether Adam Buck is definitely that person.
The investigation began with a hunch from Carreyrou, looking mostly for writing patterns (a sort of fingerprint based on the phrases and spellings a person uses) that match well with Buck’s.
But Back denied this, but this seems like the most plausible explanation we’ve seen so far.
Does it matter? In general, you would think that it is not so. However, Back is the CEO of BSTR, which owns 30,000 Bitcoins and is preparing to go public. Follow securities laws.
Read more.
Economic data: Personal income, February (+0.3% expected, +0.4% ex); Personal expenses, February (+0.5% previously, +0.4% previously); PCE price index, monthly, February (pre-+0.4%, ex-+0.3%); PCE price index, on an annual basis, February (+2.8% expected, +2.8% previously); Core PCE price index, monthly, February (+0.4% ex, +0.4% ex); Core PCE price index, on an annual basis, February (+3% expected, +3.1% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ending April 4 (+210,000 expected, +202,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ending March 28 (previously +1.841 million); Annualized GDP, quarter-on-quarter, fourth quarter (+0.7% expected, +0.7% previously)
Earnings calendar: WD-40 Company (WDFC), Neogen Corporation (NEOG), BlackBerry, (BB) Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)
Friday
Economic data: CPI, monthly, March (expected +1%, ex +0.3%); Core CPI, monthly, March (expected +0.3%, ex +0.2%); CPI, on an annual basis, March (+3.4% expected, +2.4% before); Core CPI, March on an annual basis (+2.7% expected, +2.5% previously); Real average hourly earnings, on an annual basis, March (previously +1.3%); Real average weekly earnings, on a year-on-year basis, March (previously +1.6%); Factory orders, February (-0.2% expected, +0.1% ahead); University of Michigan sentiment, April preliminary reading (previously expected 52, 53.3); U. Mich. current conditions, April preliminary reading (previously 55.8); U. Mich.’s expectations are preliminary April reading (previously 51.7); USA Mich. 1-year inflation, April preliminary reading (previously +3.8%); USA Mich. 5-10 year inflation, April preliminary reading (previously +3.2%); Durable goods orders, February latest reading (previously +0.0%)
Earnings calendar: Lotus Technology (LOT)
Hamza Şaban is a reporter following markets and economy at Yahoo Finance. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban.
Ethan Wolff-Mann He serves as a Senior Editor at Yahoo Finance and publishes newsletters. Follow him on X @ewolffmann.
For in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events driving stock prices, click here
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
