As diplomacy fails, Iran expert says Middle East on brink of military escalation
In an interview with 103FM, Danny Citrinowicz stated that both the US and Iran believe they have the upper hand, significantly reducing the chances of any compromise.
Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies, warned that the Middle East could be approaching another military conflict (INSSAfter a 21 hour tour unproductive conversations Between the US delegation and Tehran in Pakistan.
In an interview with 103FM, Citrinowicz stated that both the US and Iran believe they have the upper hand, significantly reducing the chances of any compromise.
Citrinowicz explained that the United States entered the negotiations with maximalist demands, mistakenly assuming they could force Iran to make concessions. On the other hand, Iran came to the negotiations from a position of strength. Despite the cost of the ongoing conflict, Tehran believes that if tensions escalate further, it could disrupt the global economy and impose significant costs on both the United States and Israel.
The expert also assessed the current political situation in Tehran, pointing out that the country is now under the tight control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a radical, decentralized military group. This change has made the decision-making process more unstable and inflexible; This is in stark contrast to the past Iranian leadership, which was more cautious in its approach.
Moreover, Citrinowicz argued that the Trump administration is trying to present a credible threat that could force Iran to retreat from its positions. He emphasized that Iran does not fear direct military conflict and may view the potential deployment of American forces to the region as an opportunity to retaliate. Citrinowicz said the ball is now in US President Donald Trump’s court and he must decide whether to soften his stance or risk pushing the region towards more dangerous tension.
With many of its former Revolutionary Guard leaders eliminated, Iran is ruled by a depleted and disorganized command structure driven by an extremism that is difficult for the West to fully comprehend. (Source: MAJID ASGARİPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Trump gives Tehran “ultimatum” on uranium enrichment
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance told reporters before leaving Pakistan on Sunday that no deal was “bad news” but the situation was worse for Iran. That comment, combined with the passage of two warships through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday to clear mines and rumors of a multinational naval force, suggested that the United States was not planning to withdraw from the conflict.
US sources told Jerusalem Post He said Trump gave Tehran an effective “ultimatum” on enriching uranium
On the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump declared a naval blockade of the key waterway, threatening retaliation against any aggression by Iran.
Danielle Greyman-Kennard contributed to this report.
