Iran’s delayed burial of Khamenei signals regime fear, analyst says

The prolonged delay in the funeral of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei signals a deepening crisis within the Islamic Republic, according to a leading Iranian strategist.

Dr. Ramesh Sepehrrad’s remarks come at a time when peace talks between the United States and Iran have stalled and internal tensions raise questions about the stability of the regime.

Fortieth days of mourning ceremonies for Khamenei began in Iran on April 9, and authorities concealed information about his funeral 40 days after his killing. The three-day official funeral, planned for early March 2026, had already been postponed.

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“Forty-four days have passed and the regime has no confidence in publicly burying Mojtaba’s dead father,” Sepehrrad said. Organization of Iranian American Communities (OIAC) told Fox News Digital.

“This is indicative of the fear from top to bottom within this regime,” Sepehrrad added, explaining that generally “a religious regime believes its dead should be buried within 24 hours.”

Khamenei was killed on February 28 in an attack targeting the regime compound in central Tehran; A separate attack affected his 56-year-old son, Muctaba Khamenei, who succeeded him.

Three people close to him said Mojtaba was still recovering from serious facial and leg injuries. Reuters On April 11.

Khamenei’s face was disfigured and he was seriously injured in one or both legs in the attack on the religious leader’s compound in central Tehran, three sources said.

“Nevertheless, the 56-year-old man is recovering from his injuries and remains mentally fit, according to the people, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss sensitive topics.”

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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i and vice president of the Assembly of Experts Alireza Arafi attend a meeting of Iran’s interim leadership council at an unknown location in the midst of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran on March 1, 2026. (IRIB/WANA/Handout/Reuters)

He attends meetings via audio conferencing with senior officials and is involved in decision-making on key issues, including the war and negotiations with Washington, two of the sources said.

The report comes as Iran has been making diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with the United States in Islamabad amid a two-week ceasefire, but ultimately failed to make any progress.

“Mojtaba, even if he is not the public face, has entered the broad red lines of the negotiations,” Sepehrrad said. “At the end of the day, he served as his father’s right-hand man and the conduit of the Revolutionary Guard for over 10 years.”

“Mojtaba can be less rhetorical, less ideological and more operational because his main focus is the survival of the regime.”

Iran also confirmed on Sunday that it had no plans to resume peace talks after the marathon summit mediated by Pakistan.

“No plan regarding the time, place or next round of talks has yet been announced,” Iranian state news agency Nour said on Saturday, citing the country’s Supreme National Security Council, without any statement from the new Supreme Leader. he said.

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A mourner holds a portrait of Iran’s slain religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (top-left) during the funeral of members of Iraq’s pro-Iran paramilitary group Hezbollah Brigades (Kataeb Hezbollah), who were killed in an attack in Baghdad the previous day, on March 5, 2026. Tehran-backed Iraqi group Kataeb Hezbollah said on March 5 that one of its commanders was killed in an attack in southern Iraq the day before. (Ahmed Al-Rubaye/AFP)

“Mojtaba is more of a coordinator of a security-oriented system than a religious leader in the traditional sense,” Sepehrrad explained, before describing himself as “more like a security-backed coordinator.”

“This regime does not communicate with one unified voice. It communicates functionally,” Sepehrrad said.

“One channel is negotiating, the other is threatening, the other is punishing, and the other is trying to maintain ideological continuity. It’s a mafia now,” the strategist said.

“The point is not harmony, but division of labor. What keeps them together is not trust, but regime survival.”

“What we are seeing now is deeper: a leader who lacks organic authority and therefore rules through the institution that controls power,” Sepehrrad said. he said.

On the Iranian side, the talks included “diplomats” but a broader circle of security-connected figures shaping Tehran’s stance reflected the growing dominance of hard-line institutions, the analyst said.

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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were welcomed by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Chief of General Staff Field Marshal General Asim Munir when they arrived at Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on April 11, 2026. (Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs/AP)

“This was a fragile coalition of security men,” Sepehrrad said, before explaining how Mojtaba was at the top but heavily dependent on the Guard, Parliament Speaker Muhammad Bagher Galibaf, SNSC chief Muhammad Bagher Zolghadr, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, Judiciary chief Mohseni-Ejei and law enforcement chief Ahmad-Reza Radan.

“Many of the most important survivors are not diplomats first,” Sepehrrad said, before suggesting that this “should change how we read everything that comes out of Tehran.”

“This is a different system than the one that many Western analysts think they are still dealing with,” Sepehrrad said. “Dual track; tactical flexibility in talks and tougher pressure at home.”

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“The regime will now likely intensify arrests, executions, intimidation and internet controls as it negotiates to buy time, reduce pressure on its forces and prevent wider external escalation at home,” the strategist warned.

“The regime is more afraid of internal unrest than diplomacy,” Sepehrrad said.