China exports miss estimates in March, imports post best growth in more than four years
A cargo ship full of foreign trade containers heads for the open sea in Jiaozhou Bay in Qingdao, Shandong, China, on April 13, 2026.
Cost photo | Nurfoto | Getty Images
China’s export growth slowed in March as manufacturers grappled with rising commodity and energy costs as conflicts in the Middle East disrupted supplies; Imports recorded the strongest growth in more than four years.
Exports grew by 2.5% in US dollar terms last month from a year ago, at the slowest pace in six months, Chinese customs data showed on Wednesday; It missed the average forecast of 8.6% growth by analysts polled by Reuters, weakening from a combined 21.8% increase in the first two months of the year.
Imports rose 27.8% in March from a year ago, recording the strongest growth since November 2021; Growth of 11.2% sharply beat expectations and accelerated from 19.8% in the previous two months.
China is releasing combined trade data for January and February due to fluctuations around Lunar New Year, the country’s biggest holiday that follows the agricultural calendar.
The world’s second-largest economy remains dependent on trade for growth despite rising tensions with the United States and higher tariffs. Net exports accounted for nearly a third of China’s economy last year.
While Beijing’s strategic oil stocks, diversified energy mix and tight price controls have cushioned the blow from rising oil prices, the export-dependent economy remains vulnerable to the global economic downturn resulting from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Global oil prices are experiencing “severe fluctuation”, creating a “complex and serious” trading environment, Chinese Vice Minister of Customs Wang Jun said at a press conference on Tuesday.
High commodity and energy prices resulting from the conflict have begun to eat into Chinese producers’ input costs, threatening to put pressure on firms’ already thin margins. Ex-factory prices in the country increased by 0.5% in March, the first increase in more than three years.
However, due to domestic demand remaining under pressure, the consumer price index increased by 1% slower than expected compared to a year ago.
The country will announce its first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday. Analysts polled by Reuters forecast an increase of 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to a 3-year low of 4.5%.
