Voters return to Labor, Coalition as One Nation support dips: Resolve Political Monitor
Pauline Hanson’s political rise may have peaked as her popularity waned and primary support for One Nation fell to a three-month low; But an increasing number of people believe that the right-wing party can win the next election.
The exclusive Resolve Political Monitor shows that support for One Nation fell two points as voters made a small swing to the major parties during April, when America and Israel launched their war against Iran.
The same survey also reveals that almost four-fifths of Australians have changed their driving habits or stopped traveling due to the war’s impact on oil prices. More than one in four people said the cost of living crisis meant they were changing their spending patterns.
The poll of 1,807 people, conducted by Resolve between 13 and 18 April, showed primary support for One Nation had fallen to 22 per cent. This was the lowest support for the party since January, at 18 percent. Despite the drop, it’s still a sharp increase over the 6.4 percent One Nation achieved in last year’s election.
Support for the coalition increased by one point to 23 percent; That’s up from just before Angus Taylor was elected to replace Sussan Ley as Liberal leader in February. The Coalition once again trails One Nation in primary support, but the one-point gap is within the poll’s margin of error.
Despite the improvement, the Coalition’s primary vote is down almost nine points from last year’s disastrous election result.
Labor’s primary vote is back to 32 per cent after falling to 29 per cent in March. This rate falls behind the 34.6 percent that Anthony Albanese achieved in the May elections.
Pollster Jim Reed said the failure to see a big surge in One Nation’s support could be because voters are looking at issues that do not traditionally attract Hanson’s attention, such as the economy and international relations.
“We may have reached ‘peak Pauline,’ at least for now,” he said.
While the Coalition’s support has changed little since Taylor took over the leadership, it remains positive with voters, with a net likeability score of plus 16. In contrast, Anthony Albanese’s rating stands at minus 12, a level that has remained constant since February.
Albanese is just one point ahead of Taylor as the preferred prime minister, at 33 to 32 per cent, with 34 per cent undecided.
37 percent of those polled rated Albanese’s performance as good, the highest since the start of the year, while 52 percent rated it as poor. Taylor’s performance was rated good by 41 percent; this was well above the 26 percent who rated the performance as poor. But a third of voters are still unsure of the Liberal leader, while just 10 per cent are unsure of the prime minister.
There are positive signs for new national leader Matt Canavan. He received a plus-eight favorability rating, leaving him behind only Taylor, Liberal frontrunner Andrew Hastie and Barnaby Joyce convert One Nation (both plus-10).
His popularity helped the overall placing of the Nationals. His net popularity rose from minus five in February to plus seven in this latest poll.
Pauline Hanson’s net favorability rating fell four points to plus-six. He signed up for plus 15 in January.
Emphasizing the impact of the struggle for political rights between the Coalition and One Nation, Labor maintains the 55-45 lead it achieved in last year’s elections, at the level preferred by the two parties.
But the survey also found that voters believe One Nation will be the electoral force at the next election in May 2028.
When asked who they expected to win the election, 38 per cent said they expected it to be Labour, 22 per cent said they expected it to be the Coalition and 16 per cent said they expected it to be “someone else”. That another is One Nation.
The increase in support for the government comes despite cost-of-living pressures brought on by the war against Iran, which has pushed global oil prices to almost $120 a barrel.
Keeping the cost of living low was rated as the top policy priority by 42 percent, easily eclipsing all other issues such as housing (8 percent), immigration (6 percent) and health care (7 percent).
Australians are taking their own measures to ease the cost pressure caused by the rise in petrol prices; 79 percent say they have changed their driving habits.
The most common adjustment was for people to drive less (58 percent of respondents). Low-income earners (67 percent), retirees and those living in rural or regional areas (both 64 percent) were the groups most likely to leave their car keys behind.
One in five said they did not go on a trip they normally would during the Easter break, while 19 percent said they went to work by using public transport, walking or cycling. On Sunday, the Victorian state government announced it would extend free public transport for another month and then halve prices for the rest of the year.
In a key indicator that higher oil prices are having a broad impact on consumers, more than a quarter (27 per cent) of people said they had reduced their purchases of other goods and services, according to the Central Bank.
Only 21 percent said it was unchanged, and the majority of those were high-income earners (25 percent).
There has also been an increase in the number of people changing their work habits, Reed said.
“We’re seeing more people being able to work from home than during COVID, which shows that the world of work has changed quite a bit in recent years,” he said.
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Shane Wright is senior economic correspondent for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect with: X or email.
