Iran’s new supreme leader is nowhere to be seen. That might be helping the regime to survive

More than six weeks after he was announced as the new religious leader following the murder of his father, Iranians still have not seen or heard from Mojtaba Khamenei.

Khamenei is conspicuously absent in the midst of a conflict that appears to pose an existential threat to the regime that has ruled their country for almost half a century. Instead, statements attributed to the 56-year-old cleric were read on national television or posted on social media. The regime even used AI-generated videos to show Khamenei delivering messages, fueling speculation that the new religious leader was incompetent or was abroad.

This is in stark contrast to his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was the highly visible face of Iran’s decision-making for decades. Under his rule, not a week passed without a speech, a decision, a carefully timed intervention.

a source Last month I told CNN that Khamenei was suffering He has a broken foot, a blackened left eye and minor facial injuries from the same wave of attacks that killed his father and Iran’s top military commanders.

another one Report on Reuters Unnamed sources said he attended meetings via audio conference with senior officials and took part in decision-making processes on important issues, including the war and new developments. negotiations With Washington.

Is Khamenei involved? Does he set the parameters, draw the red lines his negotiators need? Or is the leadership office functionally vacant, and if so, who makes the decisions?

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says Mojtaba “is not in a position where he can really make critical decisions or micromanage negotiations” but that “the system uses him not for negotiation tactics but to get final approval for important overall decisions.”

“The system deliberately emphasizes Mojtaba’s involvement because it provides a protective shield against internal criticism…unlike his father, who regularly appears and comments on the state of negotiations,” he added. “Mojtaba is missing in action, so attributing his views to him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves from criticism.”

‘Very reasonable people’

US President Donald Trump has boasted that Iran has undergone regime change since the elder Khamenei was killed and described those currently negotiating on Tehran’s behalf as “reasonable”.

“We’re dealing with different people than anyone has ever dealt with before,” he said last month.

Iran’s opaque political system makes finding answers to these questions even more difficult. But the longer Khamenei remains out of the public eye, the louder the questions will become.

One survivor of the US-Israeli purge of Iran’s political and military leadership was the country’s longtime parliament speaker, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the first round of talks with the US in Islamabad.

The former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, who was involved in suppressing pro-reform student protests, has emerged as one of Iran’s few politicians who can handle both suit-clad diplomats and battle-weary soldiers.

Ghalibaf was joined in Islamabad by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a large delegation of Iranian officials; This appears to be a deliberate attempt to signal unity.

While they negotiate the regime’s survival abroad, they must manage a base at home that has become increasingly anxious about talks with the United States and eager to continue causing global pain as retribution for attacks on Iran.

Since the war began, the base has been rallying in the streets in support of a regime facing an existential threat. But even as these supporters signal unity, they scrutinize every move by officials seeking to ensure the regime’s survival.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, wrote of X: “Negotiations were difficult before the conflict, but are much more complex now.” “Iran faces an increasingly decentralized, rigid and ideologically rigid system that interprets its resilience in conflict as a kind of divine victory.”

US Vice President JD Vance said that after last week’s talks ended without a deal, the Iranian delegation had to return to his country for approval from either the supreme leader or “someone else”.

Until now, an agreement made without the approval of a religious leader was not an agreement that Iranian politics could carry out together. But Iran may have entered a new phase where the leader’s visible support is no longer necessary.

The supreme leader’s apparent absence has left Iran’s surviving politicians torn between two pressures: managing the problems that constantly follow Trump’s public statement. damaged the talks) and a hardline domestic base that sees any compromise with the United States as surrender.

“This is very difficult to manage…it is a sign of a real dilemma,” says Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. he told CNN’s Becky Anderson. “They have to walk a tightrope to balance all these internal and external pressures.”

battle for survival

This unofficial war arrangement, which has placed some Iranian officials in leadership positions, has led even the regime’s staunchest supporters to be confused about who will be calling the shots.

Last week, when Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial ships, he came under criticism from regime supporters who accused him of giving Trump the opportunity to declare victory in advance.

Fars News, a popular state-run broadcaster, said “Iranian society was left in a state of confusion” following Araghchi’s statement. Another state-run publication said the move “requires the approval of the leadership and officials are required to make a statement on this matter.” Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian was also criticized last month after he apologized to his Arab neighbors and announced that there would be no more attacks against them.

Such criticism from the media increased speculation that there may be internal friction among politicians. However, after Araghchi was attacked, Ghalibaf made a national speech to reassure the people of his unity.

“This regime is not out of the woods yet,” Vaez said. “This is so far a fight for survival and they could go back to war at any point, so they are not in a position to engage in civil conflict.”

For now, Iran’s new supreme leader, accustomed to operating from the shadows, serves a useful purpose for the country’s seasoned politicians.

“Attributing views to him, even if he disagrees, is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves against criticism,” Vaez said. “No response from a man lost in action.”

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