US at risk of missile shortage after depleting stockpiles in Iran war, report warns of future conflict vulnerability

The United States has significantly reduced its stockpile of key missile systems during the recent conflict with Iran, creating what experts describe as a near-term risk of munitions shortages in the event of another major war in the coming years. The assessment is based on internal Department of Defense reviews and analyzes cited by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CNN reported.

CSIS analysis finds US missile stockpile depleted during Iran conflict

Replenishment timelines and production limits

Replacing those systems is expected to take about three to five years, despite Pentagon contracts to increase production capacity, officials and analysts told CNN. Some estimates suggest that a complete replacement of certain missile inventories could take up to four to five years, depending on the system type and scale of production.
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Although the Pentagon has signed contracts to expand missile production, the replacement timeline is long, officials and CSIS experts told CNN. Even with increased production capacity, replacement of these systems is expected to take three to five years. Some systems can take up to four to five years to be completely replaced.

The report also notes that despite recent efforts to increase production, short-term deliveries remain limited due to historically small supply orders.

Concerns about preparing for future conflicts

CSIS experts warned that the United States will maintain sufficient munitions for ongoing operations against Iran in the short term, but that current stockpiles may not be sufficient for a possible conflict with a close enemy like China. The analysis concludes that stocks are unlikely to return to pre-war levels for several years.
Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and co-author of the CSIS report, told CNN that heavy missile use created a temporary vulnerability in the Western Pacific. He said the renovation could take one to four years and additional time would be needed to build stocks to required levels.

Pentagon response and political context

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told CNN that the US military has adequate resources to act at the President’s direction and continues to maintain a strong arsenal of capabilities.
While President Donald Trump accepted requests for additional financing for missile production, he also stated that the United States does not have a weapons shortage. He said the administration aims to ensure continuous readiness and preserve high-end ammunition.

Warnings before and during conflict

Military leaders, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, have previously warned that a prolonged conflict could strain U.S. weapons stockpiles, especially those backing allies such as Israel and Ukraine.

Some lawmakers also expressed concerns about missile usage rates and long-term supply challenges, highlighting the scale of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities and the need for the United States to ensure adequate air defense supplies.