Kalshi bettors see Warsh confirmed in May after DOJ drops Powell probe
Kevin Warsh, chairman of the Federal Reserve’s nominee for U.S. President Donald Trump, during his Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing on Tuesday, April 21, 2026 in Washington, DC, United States.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Odds have increased on prediction markets platform Kalshi that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as Federal Reserve chairman in less than a month after the Justice Department announced on Friday that it was dropping its investigation into current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Bettors on the platform now see an 86% chance of Warsh’s nomination being approved by the U.S. Senate by May 15, and a greater than 97% chance by June 1.
Before the investigation into Powell was concluded Monday morning, oddsmakers pegged the odds of him being confirmed by May 15 at around 30%.
Completing the investigation met a key request from Sen. Thom Thillis, a North Carolina Republican. While he said he supports Warsh for the Fed chairman post, he said he could not vote to advance the nomination until the criminal investigation into Powell is over.
Tillis sits on the Senate Banking Committee, which must vote to advance Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate. If Tillis votes against advancing Warsh’s nomination, it would hinder his chances of getting to the Senate floor if all Democrats on the committee also oppose President Donald Trump’s pick.
Although the investigation, which ended today, will pave the way for Warsh’s nomination to be removed from the committee, Tillis has not made an official statement since the investigation was dropped. CNBC has reached out to his office for comment.
However, bettors consider this news to be a completely clear signal. At Polymarket, punters now have a similar chance: an 81% chance of Warsh being confirmed on 15 May and a 98% chance on 1 June.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.
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