Analysis-Drone diplomacy wins Ukraine valuable allies, but now it must deliver

By Daniel Flynn

KYIV, April 28 (Reuters) – President Volodymyr Zelenskiy showed how he is using his military prowess to boost Kiev’s diplomatic influence by parlaying Ukraine’s expertise in drone warfare into a series of successful diplomatic agreements during visits to the Middle East and Europe.

This month alone, Ukraine signed defense and drone deals in Germany, Norway and the Netherlands, following long-term security partnerships with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in late March.

Zelenskiy also reached an agreement on security cooperation with Türkiye and Syria in recent weeks, and signed agreements on defense and energy with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev over the weekend.

Since Russia’s invasion in 2022, Zelenskiy has sought to strengthen Kiev’s alliances with both its Western allies and the countries of the “global south” to limit Russia’s diplomatic influence.

Analysts say the Iran war confirms how central drones are to modern warfare and gives Zelenskiy a diplomatic bargaining chip at a time when U.S. support for Kiev appears unreliable.

Since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has invented cheap and highly effective ways to counter drone attacks, rather than relying solely on state-of-the-art defensive missile systems such as the expensive US Patriot that the United States uses in the Gulf.

Ukraine has also developed long-range attack drone capabilities to strike Russia’s energy infrastructure.

“Zelenskiy is trying really hard to show that Ukraine is an asset, not a liability, and that he has a response to the changing nature of the war,” said Orysia ‌Lutsevych, president of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. “Ukraine now needs to organize itself to be able to deliver in real terms.”

UKRAINE’S EXPORT CONTROLS BLOCK DEALS

Ukraine’s drone manufacturers say they have significant spare capacity, but the government has approved only a handful of defense export licenses.

Ukraine has started producing drones abroad, including in Germany and the UK, but this production is allocated to its own military needs.

“The key in Ukraine is export control: basically it is an export ban,” Lutsevych said, adding that Ukraine needed to adjust the rules. “He needs to find a balance between his war needs and his exports.”

Another challenge for Ukraine is that its success lies in developing effective systems, such as coordinated interceptor drone layers, machine guns, and jamming devices for drone defense, rather than cutting-edge technology.

As a showcase of these techniques, Ukraine sent nearly 200 experts to the Gulf to help defend against Iran’s Shahed long-range drones.

Kurt Volker, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and envoy to Ukraine during President Donald Trump’s first administration, said Kiev is rightfully cautious about sharing wartime systems too broadly.

“Most of what the Ukrainians did was develop processes and mindsets,” Volker said, adding that Ukraine was concerned about Russia learning how its systems worked. “What every business will do is protect your IP for as long as possible. That’s what makes it valuable. Of course they do.”

HUMAN OPERATORS CAN BE TRUSTED

Ukraine’s low-cost air defense relies on the training and skill of interceptor drone operators, said senior researcher Fabian Hoffmann of the Norwegian Defense University College.

This has been highly effective against propeller-driven drones such as Russia’s Geran-2, but the gradual introduction of jet-powered models that can fly at 400 km (250 miles) per hour is making the job harder for human operators.

“Ukraine is moving towards autonomous guided interceptor drones, but so far operators have done the bulk of the work,” Hoffmann said, adding that European companies such as Tytan in Germany and Frankenburg in Estonia were developing autonomous systems that could erode Ukraine’s advantage.

Experts say military exports will bring economic benefits to Ukraine. According to the manufacturers’ association UCDI, approximately 400,000 people currently work in Ukraine’s defense industry. A better capitalized defense sector could also reduce dependence on Western financial and military support and boost economic growth after an eventual ceasefire.

Zelenskiy hopes drone diplomacy can help secure energy supply agreements with Middle Eastern countries and markets for Ukraine’s agricultural products.

He also wants to strengthen Ukraine’s missile defenses. The US-Israeli war with Iran has raised concerns in Ukraine that supplies of Patriot systems used to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles may run out as Washington prioritizes its own needs.

The $4 billion defense deal Ukraine signed with Germany this month included Patriot procurement and commitments to cooperate to build European ballistic missile defense. Zelenskiy said Ukraine needs its own anti-ballistic missile defense system within a year.

The challenges of building an interceptor capable of shooting down modern maneuverable ballistic missiles are enormous, Hoffmann said: The Patriot PAC-3, with a success rate of perhaps 60%, is the fruit of decades of work, he said.

Analysts say Ukraine’s push lies in concerns about Washington’s reliability as a partner.

“He (Zelenskiy) understands that America has stopped being an ally,” Lutsevych said. “Ukrainians also understand that they must walk a fine line by keeping America on their side for as long as possible.”

(Edited by Timothy Heritage)