Taiwan tops China’s agenda for Trump-Xi summit
When US President Donald Trump heads to Beijing next month, his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping has made clear that Taiwan will be at the top of his agenda; This was a sharp departure from last year’s meeting, which deliberately sidelined the issue.
Taipei will be waiting for any sign that Trump, who has unnerved partners with his transactional approach to alliances, might ease or reshape long-standing U.S. policy toward Taiwan in exchange for China buying U.S. planes or farm products and easing economic pressures.
“The logic on Taiwan is simple: If the United States does not want to get into a major war with China over Taiwan, it should not support Taiwan’s independence,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, who serves on the policy advisory board of China’s foreign ministry.
“Trump has no intention of going to war with China. To avoid a major conflict involving the United States, he should make clear that he will not support independence or take actions that would promote a separatist political agenda.”
China’s foreign ministry said in a statement that Taiwan is the “foundation of China’s core interests” and the “political foundation of China-US relations”.
“Taiwan independence and peace in the Taiwan Strait are as incompatible as fire and water,” he said, adding that China and the United States continue to be in communication about Trump’s trip.
The U.S. State Department did not respond to requests for comment.
The United States pursues a “one-China policy” in which it officially takes no position on Taiwan’s sovereignty and acknowledges but does not acknowledge the position of China, which claims the island as its own alone. The United States said it “does not support” Taiwan’s independence but would help it pursue self-defense.
Trump administration officials have repeatedly said there has been no change in Taiwan policy and routinely condemn China for its crackdown on the island.
Specifically, they highlight that Trump took much longer to approve arms sales to Taiwan during his second term than his predecessor, Joe Biden, did throughout his presidency.
At the summit with Biden in 2024, Xi asked him to change US language on Taiwan from the current version to “We oppose Taiwan independence.”
The United States refused to make this change.
People involved in the preparations for Trump’s trip say privately that China has repeatedly sent similar signals at a working level ahead of the summit but has declined to discuss details, citing the confidentiality of the talks.
Officials in Taiwan, whose government rejects Beijing’s claim to sovereignty, are on high alert.
Hsiao Kuang-wei, a spokesman for Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said this week that since Trump took office, his administration has “consistently reaffirmed its support for Taiwan.”
China has never stopped using force to control Taiwan. It last held war games around the island in late December after the United States announced an $11 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, the largest ever.
China used both the carrot and the stick before the meeting. It offered “benefits” to Taiwan in the field of trade and tourism. Then last week, Taipei accused China of pressuring three African countries to block air rights to President Lai Ching-te’s trip to Eswatini, causing the trip to be cancelled. The United States strongly criticized China’s actions.
Lai says Taiwan is already an independent country, officially called the Republic of China. Beijing sees Lai as both a “separatist” and an illegitimate leader who has brought the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to the brink of war.
Trump’s former advisor Robert O’Brien said, “He would not be the first American president to lose Taiwan. That would not be a goal for Donald Trump to keep in mind. This is not the legacy he wants.”
