America shot its arsenal empty in 2 wars. Now it needs Beijing’s permission to reload
On Wednesday, the Trump administration finally let the cat out of Operation Epic Rage, America’s war against Iran. has burned 25 billion dollars so far. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. The White House has already made the request Additional budget of 200 billion dollars For his war against Iran.
Inventory math is brutal. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that in Iran alone, the US had burned 45% of its Precision Strike Missile stockpile, half of its THAAD interceptors, nearly half of its Patriot PAC-3 inventory, roughly 30% of its Tomahawks, and more than 20% of its long-range JASSMs.
It’s just a war. Add Ukraine, where the US has shipped nearly a third of its Javelin inventory, a quarter of its Stinger stockpile, more than two million 155mm artillery rounds and thousands of GMLRS rockets since 2022. Combined immigration is now included in the Pentagon’s internal evaluations.near term riskIt’s about running out of ammunition.
It’s one thing to have a bare gun cabinet. What is rarely reported is that it will not be restocked without Beijing’s approval.
Four Guns, Four Periodic Table Problems
Forget Ukraine. Forget Javelins, Stingers, GMLRS rockets and the two million artillery shells used in Ukraine. Ukraine aside, consider the four weapons the United States recently burned in Iran and the critical materials needed for each; These flow almost entirely through China.
Tomahawk cruise missile. US burned more than 1,000 Tomahawks in Iran; this was worth ten years of production. Each wing actuator is working samarium-cobalt magnets. China extracts and refines 99% of the world’s samarium. Placed under export license on April 4, 2025. To recreate the inventory, raytheon He must return to Beijing for the samarium.
Patriot PAC-3 interceptor. The seeker uses samarium-cobalt (SmCo) to turn the guidance head; radar’s traveling wave tubes use SmCo to focus the microwave beam; yttrium-iron-garnet phase shifters adjust the sequence. Approximately 1.2 to 2.4 tons of high-temperature SmCo plus yttrium oxide are required to replace the more than 1,200 interceptors used in Iran. China between 2020 and 2023 USA provided 93% of yttrium imports.
JASSM-ER stealth cruise missile. The aileron servos and seeker run on neodymium-iron-boron magnets (NdFB) doped with dysprosium and terbium for thermal stability. Remove the heavy rare earths and the magnet loses its magnetism in flight. The consumption of approximately 1,100 missiles means between 1.5 and 3 tons of NdFeB raw material. China refines the vast majority of the world’s dysprosium and terbium.
F-35 Yıldırım II. The Ministry of Defense itself for ten years repeated that each F-35 contains 920 pounds of rare earth. The strategically critical ingredient is high-temperature SmCo and dysprosium-doped NdFeB in motor actuators, electric drives and radar. These are exactly the ingredients Beijing licensed.
Across these four weapon systems, the back-of-the-envelope supply requirement is five to ten metric tons of finished defense-grade rare earth magnets, more than 95% of which will come from the People’s Republic of China.
Hand of Beijing
China holds all the cards and knows how to play them. Gallium and germanium checks arrived in August 2023. Antimony checks came in August 2024. Complete ban on shipping to the US in December 2024. As a result, antimony prices increased by 134%. Tungsten restrictions were introduced in February 2025; The price increased by over 557% per metric ton. Later MOFCOM Announcement No. 18 dated April 4, 2025It placed seven medium and heavy rare earth elements under voluntary licence. China’s rare earth magnet exports fell by 74% the following month. In October 2025, Beijing extended the regime cross-border to any product anywhere in the world containing as little as 0.1% rare earth originating from China.
Trump is in Beijing
This brings us to May 14, 2026, when President Trump was elected. Meeting planned with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It is not surprising that critical materials were at the top of the meeting agenda. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated in early April that the purpose of the meeting was to “ensure that we can continue to purchase rare earths from China.”
There’s only one thing worse than being unprepared for the war you start. He’s unprepared for the next one because your opponent controls the periodic table.
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