Verdict Day: Poll-bound States on Edge
With the Assembly election results expected on Monday, visible tension and tense expectation prevailed in key poll-bound states as voters in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry awaited the verdict. After a high-decibel campaign, party headquarters, workers, leaders and candidates are on edge, awaiting results that could decisively reshape regional power equations.
All eyes are on West Bengal, where the election, fiercely fought by the Opposition, has been branded as a battle between the “State of India and the Trinamul Congress”. In an unprecedented show of force, nearly three lakh personnel from the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) were deployed along with an “encounter specialist” from Uttar Pradesh. The campaign, backed by all the machinery of the Election Commission, witnessed a massive influx of cadres from saffron-ruled states as well as an incessant influx of Union ministers and BJP chief ministers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi not only addressed nearly 14 rallies and numerous promotional tours, but also made efforts to woo Bengali voters with a carefully choreographed boat tour on the Hooghly, a flashy kick at a football match and a morsel of food. jhalmuri.
As if that wasn’t enough, home minister Amit Shah was camped out in West Bengal for several days until the final round of voting on April 29. The Opposition revolted when the Enforcement Directorate intensified raids across West Bengal during the elections. The ED carried out multiple searches in Kolkata, Siliguri, Burdwan and Habra, primarily targeting TMC-affiliated officials and candidates.
In another first, the EC ordered re-voting in 15 ballot boxes following reports of election fraud. Above all, West Bengal has witnessed record historic voter turnout since Independence. Overall participation across the two phases was approximately 93 percent. On April 29, four exit polls (Matrize, P-Marq, Praja Poll and Poll Diary) predicted a thumping victory for the BJP in West Bengal, while two others (People’s Pulse, Janmat) gave a clear lead to chief minister Mamata Banerjee and TMC. Another exit poll (JVC) predicted a close contest between TMC and BJP.
However, on Saturday, the TMC filed a complaint with the Election Commission, alleging unauthorized segregation of postal ballots at an EVM counter in Kolkata. TMC workers camped outside Khudiram Anushilan Kendra claimed that eight boxes of postal ballots were brought at 4 am and taken to a room where there was no CCTV. Late on Saturday evening, in another unprecedented move, the EC announced that re-voting will be held in all 285 polling stations in the Falta Assembly constituency, reportedly a TMC stronghold.
With exit polls giving mixed signals in several constituencies and predicting close contests, Tamil Nadu is awaiting a decision that could either cement continuity or signal the beginning of a major political realignment. While most polls show that the DMK-led alliance can retain power, albeit by a smaller margin, the biggest surprise seems to be the emergence of actor-turned-politician Vijay’s TVK.
While some polls predicted 10-25 seats for TVK, others showed 30-40 seats, making it a major player in the state. However, Axis My India, which refrained from making any predictions for the West Bengal elections, placed TVK in around 100-120 seats, elevating it to the kingmaker position. If the predictions about TVK turn out to be true, Tamil Nadu will witness a shift from its bipolar politics to the rise of another regional power.
While the ruling DMK was given an upper hand in 120-150 seats, the AIADMK-BJP alliance was restricted to 60-100 seats.
As for Kerala, if the Congress-led UDF wins, the state could become the graveyard of the Left. If the Left Democratic Front (LDF) loses Kerala, CPM-led Left parties will fall from power across the country. After losing West Bengal to the Trinamul Congress in 2011, the Left lost Tripura to the BJP in 2018. Kerala is the last bastion of Marxists. If Kerala falls, the Left risks becoming politically ineffective across the country. Sensing a potential UDF comeback in Kerala, Rahul Gandhi stepped up his campaign by addressing around 10 rallies; this was much more than the six meetings in Tamil Nadu and just three in West Bengal.
As the BJP led by chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma prepares to return to power in Assam, the Congress seems to be struggling to keep pace. The Assam campaign saw a bitter and risky battle between the Congress and the BJP, filled with personal attacks and harsh rhetoric on identity, development and citizenship. In the vociferous campaign, a section of civic groups and the Opposition also accused Assam CM Sarma of running a “socially accusatory and divisive campaign”.
