Local elections mapped: Where Labour is facing a ‘calamity’ and the key seats to watch
Pollsters have warned that Labor could see its worst-ever performance in upcoming local elections as some forecasts show the ruling party losing more than 1,000 seats in key elections.
More than 5,000 council seats will be up for grabs when voters in England go to the polls on Thursday, May 7, and it could be a decisive battle for Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
The prime minister has been grappling with troubling popularity polls – for both himself and his party – for more than 12 months as other leadership candidates such as Andy Burnham or Angela Rayner seek to capitalize on discontent with the government.
Pollsters predict Labor could see historic lows in local elections for councils, with the Conservatives expected to struggle.
The biggest winner is predicted to be Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. He hopes for a repeat of last year’s local elections, in which his party increased its number of parliamentary seats to 677.
The Green Party is also expected to make significant gains across the country, fueled by increased popularity following the election of Hannah Spencer to parliament in Gorton and Denton in February.
To talk IndependentPolitical scientist John Curtice said the election represented a “remarkable disaster” for the government and the Conservatives.
He said: “2024 raises the question of where the two-party system will go if a Labor government actually runs into electoral trouble. Events since then have reinforced this.”
“These elections may well provide another significant organizational boost to corporate capabilities. [Green and Reform]”.
Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at Oxford University, predicts Labor will lose 1,900 councilors in the upcoming election, losing 74 per cent of the seats it defends.
This marks the worst local election performance for any prime minister in history. Professor Fisher predicted the Conservatives could see a net loss of 1,010 councillors, in a clear sign of growing discontent with Britain’s two largest parties.
The electoral expert also found that Reform could win 2,260 councillors, tripling its local representation in England. Meanwhile, the Greens could get 450 votes and the Liberal Democrats 200.
If the predictions prove correct, the result will be a devastating blow to Sir Keir’s premiership and is likely to reopen the possibility of a leadership struggle.
The Labor leader has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, which has almost wiped out the slight popularity boost the government had enjoyed over its handling of the US-Iran war.
“Starmer has never been a popular leader,” said Sir John, “he has never managed to sell himself to voters. He has never been able to define what he is about and where he is trying to take the country.”
He added that the most popular replacement for Sir Keir is Andy Burnham, currently ranked by YouGov as the UK’s most popular politician. But the Manchester mayor was blocked from appearing in Gorton and Denton by the Labor Party governing body.
In recent days, there have been fresh calls from across the political spectrum for Sir Keir to resign after it was revealed that Lord Mandelson had been approved for the role despite failing the review process following intervention by the Foreign Office. If the party’s local support collapses on May 7, these calls will probably become louder.
Every council seat in London’s 32 boroughs is up for election. The capital has been seen as a Labor Party stronghold in recent years; The party held majority control in 21 councils.
But the last set of London elections were in 2022 and the political landscape has changed dramatically over the last four years. Sir Keir’s Labor Party’s popularity has waned since it came to power in 2024, as its handling of issues such as Gaza and immigration has alienated young, progressive voters from the party.
This dynamic benefited the Green Party the most; leader Zack Polanski has been trying to position the group as a more left-wing alternative to Labor since taking office last year.
Although the Greens currently have just 49 councilors in London, they are still the second largest party in the five boroughs. The latest polling by YouGov suggests that number could rise rapidly, with the party taking the highest vote share in four councils including Lewisham and Lambeth.
The same poll revealed that Reform could win the highest share of the three parties. No party has ever won a London council poll before.
The last time Labor won fewer than 15 London councils was 44 years ago in 1982, when it won just 12.
Worker sources told Independent earlier this week While they expect a “bloodbath” in Islington, Green Party sources said they expect to take Hackney.
Mr Curtice said: “The Labor vote goes to the Greens first and foremost, which is now the main target for Labor voters leaving the party in 2024. Then there are the Liberal Democrats and Reform. Almost no one is going to the Conservatives.”
“Reform is fighting 99.9 per cent of the wards; the Greens are fighting more than 90 per cent,” he added. “That’s a very strong sign.”
Other seats up for grabs are scattered across the North, Midlands and South. Traditionally Labor-voting cities such as Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle and Wolverhampton are all holding elections, and discontent with the government is making the results less predictable.
Polling from Electoral Britain suggests that – although all of this will likely remain under Labour’s control – Reform, followed by the Greens, are poised to create a massive dent in the party’s seat count.
Poll results suggest Farage’s party could take control or take the most seats without a majority in some councils outside major cities. Areas such as Wakefield, Sunderland and Thurrock are expected to switch from Labor to Reform in the upcoming event.
Meanwhile, the Greens have strong hopes in Sheffield, where they are expected to win a minority seat, and are understood to be concentrating their campaign efforts in Newcastle.
