One Nation’s surge exposes Coalition’s struggle in regional Australia
Updated ,first published
Thirty years after Pauline Hanson first exploded on the national stage against immigration, globalization and a political class she said had abandoned ordinary Australians, her party has finally achieved success.
One Nation’s victory raises a sharper question within the Coalition about whether the Farrer by-election result is merely a protest vote or the beginning of something more permanent in regional Australia.
The result in a once-safe Coalition stronghold in the Southern Riverina revealed uneasiness over whether conservative voters are just pumped up in a by-election or are constantly shifting their allegiances in places long considered political bases.
Domestically, Coalition figures are urging caution. Midterm elections are volatile contests in which voters can express their frustrations without changing the government. Some also point to the departure of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley as a domestic destabilizer that has increased volatility.
But others are less convinced that it can be brought under control.
Since Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan stepped into senior leadership roles, much of their focus has been on trying to win back conservative voters who have shifted to Hanson. That effort did not stop the leak, Farrer said.
The combined primary vote for the Liberal and National parties, which have held the seat since 1949, fell to just over 20 per cent. The question is whether this is an isolated case or has it already moved into regional Australia.
In Oaklands, a small grain town with a population of barely 300 people 65 miles northwest of Albury, Hanson’s political breakthrough was measured almost in votes. However, the change was not sudden, it developed gradually.
A year ago, One Nation had 13 percent there; strongest result among voters, but still marginal. On Saturday, it was impressive: 123 of the 177 official votes gave One Nation’s David Farley the No. 1 spot. The primary vote reached 69.9 percent, and the preference of the two candidates rose to 77.97 percent.
Move through the Oaklands and the political story involves disappearance rather than ideology.
The rail line beyond Boree Creek went away a few decades ago. The tavern keeper recently walked away from the only hotel after years of pressure, saying “all rural pubs are struggling”. In nearby towns, pubs have completely disappeared.
Residents speak of the loss of nearby banks, services and local authority. The forced council merger that brought the former Urana Shire into the Federation Council still irks.
Nothing was suddenly lost. This is where the locals return; Decline not as collapse but as accumulation. Governments from all walks of life and views looked after this.
Standing in front of Oaklands Public School after voting, store owner Craig Jennings said communities feel politically deadlocked.
“It has become a bit of a one-party party,” he said. “It looks like nothing will change.”
He and his partner Trish Brown said big parties were largely removed from city life. Brown said they once voted Labour.
“They didn’t do anything for us. They left us out to dry.”
He said Hanson has now become the only politician to openly speak out about his experiences.
“He always said the things we believed in,” Brown said.
During the talks at Oaklands, concerns about younger generations were a constant; whether their children will have the same chance to get ahead, or whether opportunities have narrowed compared to the past.
Leanne Patterson said she was worried about her grandchildren’s future.
“I’m afraid to see what it will be like,” he said.
Amanda Preedy said she feels like voters are being ignored.
“I don’t think we’ve ever seen any candidate here like this, other than One Nation,” he said.
Recreational hunter Brett Fodder said rural realities were often misunderstood, especially when it came to gun legislation that came into force earlier this year.
“It was rushed,” he says. “They don’t think about us here. People in the cities don’t understand the sight of hundreds of kangaroos or rabbits and foxes lining up and destroying crops.”
The pattern extends beyond Oaklands.
One Nation’s strongest results were concentrated in former interior towns that had lost population or economic momentum (Deniliquin, Finley, Jerilderie, Hay and Corowa). These are places marked by aging populations, declining services and a sense of long-term decline.
By contrast, larger regional centers such as Albury, Griffith and Leeton, with more diverse economies and younger populations, fared better, according to Climate 200-backed independent Michelle Milthorpe. But these are not the bulwarks against such emotions that they once were.
And those circumstances help explain why Hanson’s rise to Farrer cannot be reduced to a protest vote.
The forces across regional Australia are structural; It can be said that the weakening of trust in institutions, resentment towards metropolitan policies and so on cause faith towns not to be governed, let alone represented.
So where should we go next for the Coalition? Taylor and Canavan have sharpened their rhetoric on net zero, immigration and cultural policies to stop the drift towards Hanson.
Hanson’s presence in the campaign had a different force; recognition rather than politics. Even voters who supported Farley often framed their support in terms of him.
The dilemma for the coalition is that mirroring Hanson will only reinforce his authenticity.
One Nation has historically struggled to sustain its inroads in the state’s lower house beyond protest cycles, but removing Farrer would miss signals from Oaklands and similar towns. Commitment to the coalition was broken and populist politics filled the void.
National leader Matt Canavan says the Conservatives’ fight should be against Labour. But he highlighted the circus surrounding Hanson and his associates as one reason why One Nation had failed to truly deal with the ALP.
“I think the drama going on in One Nation is a bit strange sometimes,” he told reporters on Saturday. “We have been experiencing the drama of One Nation for days… different opinions from different people, kicking people out of press conferences. So do we want Drama Nation or do you want One Nation?”
“How are you going to take this to the Labor Party, guys?”
What Hanson achieved in Farrer was not just a seat, but parliamentary representation of long-standing regional grievances.
Whether this is an exception or an early sign is the question hanging over the Coalition and Australian politics as a whole.
Rob Harris is a national correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in Canberra. He is a former European correspondent.Connect via email.
