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Iran’s Kharg Island Oil Shipments Show First Prolonged Halt Since Start of War

(Bloomberg) — Oil shipments from Iran’s main export terminal appear to have ground to a halt over the past few days, satellite images show; This is the first sign of a prolonged pause since the beginning of the war.

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European satellite images compiled by Bloomberg show that no ocean-going oil tankers were observed off Kharg Island on May 8, 9, or 11. Although there have been some days when the docks were empty since the conflict began, this was the longest period without any tankers being seen.

Iran loaded cargo into the facility throughout the conflict; He continued to load ships and use them as floating storage after their passage through the Persian Gulf was blocked by the US Navy.

Leaving Kharg Island idle will increase pressure on the country’s remaining storage facilities, as satellite images show. Estimates vary on how much space Iran has left, but if all tanks reach capacity, Iran may be forced to make deeper production cuts. The country has already restricted some production.

The New York Times reported a 3,000-barrel leak at the facility, based on an image dated May 6; This may have affected uploads. Iran has denied there was a leak, and subsequent images where uploads have stopped clearly show no such thing.

Photos taken on May 11 from the European Union’s Sentinel 2 satellite show that all piers on Kharg Island are empty. Images recorded both two and three days ago show that there are no ocean-going oil tankers at the facility.

The terminal has not been shown empty for more than a day since the beginning of the war. Satellite images of the Kharg Island piers have been available for 33 of the 73 days since the US and Israel launched their attacks on February 28. Only two of the earlier images do not show tankers at anchor; one in mid-April and the other in early March.

There are gaps in the record because the path of the Sentinel 1 and 2 satellites around Earth means that not all areas of the planet’s surface are covered every day.

Floating Storage

Iran’s ships have been unable to leave the Persian Gulf without risking capture or attack by the US Navy since mid-April, while oil tankers are used as floating storage.

Over the past few weeks, a fleet anchored east of Kharg Island has been formed. The number of very large crude oil tankers rose to at least 18 tankers of various sizes as of May 11, from just three on April 11, two days before Washington imposed the blockade. Others gathered off the Iranian port of Chabahar, near the border with Pakistan.

It is unclear how many of these tankers were full and how many were empty, but it is reasonable to assume that those that visited Kharg Island and docked nearby contained cargo. Ships further east toward the mouth of the Persian Gulf may be a mix of loaded ships that the United States has prevented from leaving, and empty ships that have been stopped en route to the waterway to pick up fresh cargo.

Storage Filling

Analysis of satellite images shows storage tanks on Kharg Island are filling up, while tanker loadings appear to have paused.

The tanks have floating roofs that rise as they fill, reducing the distance between the top of the tank wall and the roof. This reduces the shadows cast on the side of the reservoir, so comparing images taken simultaneously on different days reveals how the volume of oil inside has changed.

An image of tanks on May 11 (left) shows several reservoirs circled in red, with noticeably smaller shadows on their roofs than in an image on April 6 (right), shortly before the U.S. Navy began its blockade.

Images show that Kharg Island’s spare capacity has dropped to almost zero. If Iran runs out of places to store oil, it may have to cut production in some fields, which could bring a symbolic victory to the United States.

Since the blockade began, President Donald Trump and officials in his administration have predicted that Iran would need to quickly begin shutting down its oil wells. Other observers, such as analytics firm Kpler, estimate that Tehran can continue pumping until the end of May before running out of storage space.

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