Trump-Xi summit: What to expect as US-China ties, Trade, Taiwan and Iran on the agenda
But there are many issues at stake in one of the world’s most important relationships, and there is no easy ending on the horizon.
Few expect major breakthroughs in the long-running frictions between China and the United States, which range from rivalry in technology to the thorny issue of Taiwan, whose main unofficial ally is the United States. Ending the war with Iran is likely to be added to the agenda, with Beijing becoming one of the unofficial mediators in this conflict.
“There is consensus on both sides that U.S.-China stability is important,” said Henrietta Levin, senior fellow in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Once you get past the stability issue, ‘what happens next’ in the relationship becomes a little more complicated, and so the most likely thing to come out of the meeting is very little.”
Here’s what you need to know about the summit:
There may be a trade agreement, but it is not a solution
The Sino-US trade war began with Trump’s first term, but it kicked up a notch in April last year when Trump announced a 34% tariff on all Chinese goods on so-called “Liberation Day”. China retaliated with counter-tariffs and other measures such as restrictions on rare earth exports. Tariffs rose as high as 145 percent as they escalated back and forth.
Realizing that very high tariffs were unsustainable, the two sides subsequently called a trade ceasefire, halting most punitive economic measures. The two leaders met in South Korea in October and extended the ceasefire for another year. China has pledged to buy soybeans from American farmers, while the United States has cut tariffs by more than half. “China’s strategy was to promote stability by responding,” said Fudan University professor Zhao Minghao, an international relations expert. “Both sides can sign a comprehensive trade agreement this time. But this does not mean that the war is over and there will be terms of the agreement.”
Last year’s trade ceasefire did not solve any of the big picture problems and did not mean a return to the way things were. China now has a new export permit requirement for rare earth exports that it can tighten at any time.
Moreover, this time “there was a lack of massive participation typical of past summits,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Community and former U.S. trade negotiator.
China issued new regulations in April that create a framework for identifying and countering foreign measures targeting Chinese companies. For example, under the new rules, China’s Ministry of Commerce told affected companies, such as an oil refinery that buys Iranian crude, to ignore U.S. sanctions.
Although some say that the parties may announce the continuation of the commercial ceasefire, they state that they continue to take targeted steps. “This is a fragile ceasefire,” Cutler said.
The White House said Sunday that they also plan to discuss creating a new “Commerce Board” to allow their countries to speak out on economic issues.
China’s ability to buy high-tech chips remains a thorny issue
As early as Trump’s first term in office, the United States imposed restrictions on exports to China of advanced computer chips and related technologies, such as the machines that produce the chips.
Nvidia, a California company and leading advanced chip designer, pressured Trump to let it export them to China. Nvidia founder Jensen Huang argued that the sale of the chips would build confidence in American technology for Chinese artificial intelligence companies.
But a growing list of restrictions on chip exports could push China further into self-reliance. “China’s attitude has subtly changed; it appears to be more focused on developing its domestic chip industry rather than continuing to rely on advanced chips from the United States,” Zhao said in written comments. he said.
Also Read: Ahead of Trump-Xi summit, China warns over US arms sales to Taiwan
China sees Taiwan as ‘biggest risk’ in relations with US
Two weeks before the meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the bilateral relationship remained generally stable but that Taiwan remained the “biggest risk” to relations. China signaled once again on Thursday that Taiwan would be a priority in the talks.
Few people expect a solution to the Taiwan issue, which has been ongoing since China and Taiwan were separated by civil war in 1949. While Beijing claims Taiwan, the island is a self-governing democracy.
Tensions have risen since Taiwan first elected Tsai Ing-wen as president in 2016. The leader’s Democratic Progressive Party says Taiwan is functionally independent and its own sovereign state. Beijing has cut off communications with Taiwan’s government and began sending warplanes and warships near the island in almost daily drills in recent years.
The island’s current president, Lai Ching-te, is also from the DPP. Beijing has repeatedly criticized Lai, even portraying him as a “parasite” in propaganda footage of its military exercises.
The United States is required by law to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself, but maintains what is officially called strategic ambiguity, leaving the question of whether the United States would participate in military intervention if China decides to retake Taiwan by force. Trump also recently said he discussed arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, raising new questions about whether the United States would support Taiwan.
“One possibility is that China and the United States could adopt some kind of ‘mutual restraint’ strategy, such as reducing the number of American arms sales to Taiwan in exchange for fewer military exercises against Taiwan from the mainland,” Zhao said.
US wants China to pressure Iran
While the world waits for the end of the Iran war, which has shaken the global economy, the conflict is likely to surface in the talks.
China has openly criticized the United States and Israel for the war. He is also seen by some as an unofficial mediator who can influence Tehran, given his close political and economic ties with Iran. So far, Beijing has been cautious and has chosen not to get deeply involved in the issue.
“I don’t think China is interested in solving the problems that the United States has created for itself in the Middle East,” said Levin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. he said.
A few days before the trip, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on China to pressure Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, saying Beijing was financing terrorism by buying Iranian oil.
Speaking to Fox News, Bessent said, “Let’s see China step in with some diplomacy and enable the Iranians to open the strait.” “Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism and China buys 90% of their energy, so they are financing the largest state sponsor of terrorism.”
