For anxious Taiwan, Trump’s silence after Xi talks is best possible outcome | Taiwan

Ahead of this week’s summit between the presidents of China and the United States, Taiwan was seen as a worried bystander.

Observers suggested Taipei feared that the unpredictable and transactional Donald Trump could unravel Washington’s long-standing support for the island democracy, which Beijing claims is a breakaway province, at talks on Thursday and Friday.

But the US president took an unusually quiet approach in dodging questions about Taiwan while welcoming a “wonderful” meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping when the leaders emerged on Thursday afternoon. The country was not mentioned in the White House text about the meeting, which was later published.

Trump may be reading the room. Shortly before the meeting, Xi took a harsh tone, declaring that “Taiwan independence” and peace in the Taiwan Strait were “incompatible.”

Xi said: “If managed correctly, relations between the two countries will improve.” [China and the US] It will remain generally stable. “If this problem is not managed well, the two countries will collide or even clash, dragging the entire China-US relationship into a very dangerous situation.”

Wen-Ti Sung, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Center, said Xi’s tone was “surprisingly harsh for summit diplomacy.” This was intended to signal to Trump that “the Taiwan issue remains the reddest of red lines for Beijing.” Sung said Xi’s message was, “Understand Taiwan correctly and we are friends; misunderstand Taiwan and we can become enemies without even realizing it.”

Taiwan’s foreign ministry responded quickly and firmly to Xi, saying: “The Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not interconnected.”

But beyond this customary sparring, Taipei will be quietly pleased with the outcome of the meeting and especially Washington’s silence, according to William Yang, a senior analyst focusing on China for the Crisis Group.

With Trump and Xi due to meet again on Friday, Yang believes it will focus on trade and investment agreements, and Taipei may already be “breathing a sigh of relief”.

Yang said: “[Taipei] We would appreciate Taiwan being mentioned as little as possible. “They choose not to mention Taiwan, instead mentioning it, marking a departure from long-standing US policy.”

Before Trump’s arrival in Beijing on Wednesday evening, Xi was expected to pressure him about arms sales to Taipei. Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province even though it has never governed it, and refuses to give up its right to use force to take it. Washington acknowledges China’s claim without approving it and maintains its policy of strategic uncertainty, saying it may – but may not – intervene to protect Taiwan if the island is invaded.

The United States also provides Taiwan with the ability to defend itself through arms sales.

Before the meeting, China’s Taiwan affairs office reiterated Washington’s “consistent and clear” opposition to these arms sales, condemning “China’s military ties with the Taiwan region.”

In December, the Trump administration angered Beijing by announcing an $11bn (£8bn) arms package to Taiwan. Another package worth about $14 billion has reportedly been awaiting Trump’s signature for months, and last week a bipartisan group of U.S. senators urged Trump to move forward on it.

The president now faces additional momentum to do so after Taiwan’s parliament ended a 16-month deadlock on Friday when opposition groups backed the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s much-reduced $25 billion defense budget that funds those purchases.

Ahead of Trump’s meeting with Xi, commentators suggested that the US president’s need for Beijing’s support to end his intractable war with Iran could pave the way for a kind of “grand bargain” in which the US would compromise on its support for Taiwan.

However, Alexander Huang, president of the Council for Strategic and Wargames Research, a Taiwan-based think tank, said Xi’s statement generally showed that the Chinese leader “may not want to place Taiwan in this framework.”

Huang said: “Xi clearly did not ask Trump to say or commit anything about Taiwan. This is because Xi believes that the Taiwan issue should be dealt with firmly between the two countries. [Taipei and Beijing]. “Obviously asking Trump for specific words or actions will give the impression that Taiwan is a bargaining chip for trade.”