Labour leadership race: Key moments in the challenge to take on Keir Starmer

The starting gun has been fired for the Labor Party leadership election, with Andy Burnham wanting to return to Westminster and Wes Streeting stating he will quit the cabinet and enter any contests.

Speculation Sir Keir may be facing trouble challengeIt has been around for months, but after days of growing calls for resignations following the disastrous election results for the Labor Party, the candidates have finally been announced. They started to make their moves.

Mr Streeting, Mr Burnham and deputy chancellor Angela Rayner have been touted as the most likely challengers to Sir Keir’s premiership, while Al Carns and Ed Miliband have also been named as potential candidates.

On Thursday, Ms. Rayner gave her clearest indication yet by announcing that she had been cleared of willful wrongdoing in an investigation into her tax affairs, which had previously been seen as a major political hurdle.

Mr Streeting then finally resigned as health minister after days of speculation he would do so before Labor MP Josh Simons announced he would step down to allow Mr Burnham to stand in the by-election, giving him the chance to return to the House of Commons and challenge Sir Keir.

So what happens now? Here we look at how the Labor leadership contest will actually work and how long it could last:

NEC must first decide whether Burnham can run

There is a growing consensus within the Labor Party that any leadership challenge should involve a “broad” group of candidates; This means most people believe a contest should include Mr Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester.

Mr Burnham cannot currently challenge the prime minister as he is not an MP, but that could be about to change when he announces he will stand in the Makerfield by-election on Thursday.

But the mayor of Manchester will need the approval of Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) and local members to get on the ballot.

When a seat in Gorton and Denton came up earlier this year, Mr Burnham was blocked by the NEC in what many saw as a move to keep him out of parliament to avoid a leadership challenge.

If the committee decides to block him again when it meets on Tuesday, that would put a swift end to Mr. Burnham’s bid.

But they are less likely to do so this time, with Labor sources indicating he will not be blocked and many Labor MPs and even junior ministers publicly calling for Mr Burnham to be allowed to stand.

Makerfield by-election

Even if he is approved by the NEC and local members, there is no guarantee Mr Burnham will win the by-election.

Labor won the seat in the 2024 general election, but Nigel Farage’s Reform UK performed well in the region in last week’s local elections.

The contest will not be simple, with the Electoral Calculus predicting Reform has an 82 per cent chance of winning the seat, while Labor has just 17 per cent.

Mr Burnham, currently Labour’s most popular politician, will be hoping he can still beat Reform by proving he is the right man to lead the party at the next general election.

But Mr Farage said: “We are looking forward to the competition and will be giving it our absolute all.”

Triggering leadership struggle

Mr Burnham or another potential candidate will need to trigger a formal leadership challenge when he returns to parliament.

There is no formal vote of confidence procedure to remove a Labor leader.

Sir Keir will need to resign or any challenger will instead need the support of 81 MPs – 20 per cent of the party in the House of Commons – to launch a contest.

Written nominations will need to be submitted to Labor general secretary Hollie Ridley.

Who else will participate in the race?

Anyone who wants to join the leadership race will need to get the support of their 81 MPs.

There is no limit on the number of candidates in the Labor leadership race, but MPs can only support one candidate at a time, effectively limiting how many people can stand.

In the event of a successful challenge, Sir Keir will be on the ballot as the incumbent by default and will not need to field candidates.

“Wes will be the candidate when the contest comes,” insisted a source close to former health secretary Mr Streeting. He left the cabinet, saying he had “lost confidence” in the Prime Minister while calling for a contest for the Labor leadership.

Sir Keir’s former aide Ms Rayner may also enter the race on Thursday, saying her tax matters had been resolved with HMRC.

Other possible candidates include Energy Minister Ed Miliband and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns.

Voting process

If a candidate can gain the support of 81 MPs, he or she must be nominated from five per cent of the Labor Parties (CLP) in the constituency or from at least three affiliated organisations, including two unions, that make up at least 5 per cent of affiliated members.

In the next stage, the competition’s party members and affiliates will be offered to vote using the preferential voting system.

Each voter has one vote but ranks the candidates in order of preference. If a candidate wins 50 percent of the first preference votes, they win the contest.

Otherwise, the last-ranked candidate is eliminated and the votes of voters who showed him as their number one choice are shifted to their second choice candidate.

The process will continue until a candidate obtains more than 50 per cent of the votes cast, making them leader of the Labor Party and the new prime minister.

How long will all this last?

There is no set amount of time for how long a competition will last, but it usually lasts a few weeks.

The last Labor leadership election of 2021, with Sir Keir as leader, took nearly 13 weeks to complete from the time it officially began.

In 2016, when Jeremy Corbyn faced rebellion, this process lasted around 13 weeks, while in 2015 this struggle lasted around 18 weeks.

But a contest has yet to be officially launched as the party awaits Mr Burnham’s return, which will take at least another few weeks.

What will happen to the government in the meantime?

On paper, Sir Keir Starmer’s government will continue to govern as usual during this period. However, this is much more difficult to do in practice.

The Prime Minister has resigned from multiple ministries in recent days and it would be almost impossible for him to continue leading the country without the trust of his cabinet.

Labor strongly criticized the previous Conservative government for bringing chaos to the country during multiple leadership coups.

When Boris Johnson’s authority collapsed in 2022, he tried to cling to power by replacing senior ministers, but it was only days before he was forced to announce his resignation as Conservative Party leader outside No 10.

Even if Ser Keir continues to fight and decides to enter a contest, he will face the distraction of running both the country and the leadership contest.