Stafford byelection tipped to swing towards LNP as danger looms for Steven Miles’ leadership of Queensland Labor | Australia news

A by-election in the Brisbane seat of Stafford is expected to tilt the incumbent LNP Queensland government, an outcome experts say will likely be fatal for former premier Steven Miles’ Labor leadership.

Stafford voters, north of Brisbane, went to the polls following the sudden death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan in April.

If Queensland Labor loses the seat, it will become the first state party to lose a by-election from opposition in 50 years and the pressure will mount on Miles.

Sullivan, who received 6.83% of the vote against him in the 2024 election, was expelled from the Labor Party in May 2025 due to legal and medical concerns.

He was expelled from the Labor Party in 2025 after taking a month’s leave and subsequently came under repeated personal attacks from the government in parliament.

Stafford, a historically working-class suburb in North Brisbane, has been held almost continuously by Labor since 1989. It was owned by Sullivan’s father, Terry Sullivan, from 2001 to 2006.

With a margin of 5.3%, it was the 12th closest seat to Labor at the 2024 election and is considered marginal.

The Greens’ how-to-vote card, unlike in 2024, did not recommend voters choose Labor or the Liberal National parties.

One Nation could not become a candidate.

Political pundits warned the result would have consequences for David Crisafulli’s ruling LNP government, the Labor opposition and federal politics.

Paul Williams, a political scientist at Griffith University, said Fiona Hammond was increasingly likely to win the LNP seat with a predicted 51-52% vote once the preferences were split.

Conceptually, Labor, whose candidate Luke Richmond voted with his wife Maddie earlier on Saturday, still holds the seat with a two-party preference margin of 5.3%.

Latest polls show the LNP on course for an unexpected and historic victory.

As a by-election move towards an incumbent government is rare, Williams said even a reduction in Labour’s margin would technically be a loss for Labor and Miles.

“If [the LNP] Bringing it from 55 to 53 is technically a loss for Labor,” Williams said. “They need to win this seat 59-60 and we know that’s not going to happen.

“If they lose the seat it would be huge. If it was a regional seat maybe, but losing a Labor seat in Brisbane would have very serious consequences.”

He said a loss was likely to be fatal to Miles’ leadership, with shadow treasurer and shadow minister for women Shannon Fentiman best placed to challenge.

Williams said One Nation made a mistake by not nominating a candidate in the city seat, where the party has historically struggled to gain traction.

“They couldn’t have won, but six months ago that would have been impossible and now it’s gone from impossible to impossible,” he said.

While the party was previously expected to get between 2 percent and 4 percent of the votes, on Saturday it could be expected to get between 12 percent and 20 percent or more.

Williams said such a result would almost guarantee the LNP victory at the polls.

He said the Greens’ decision not to allocate preferences would likely only have consequences if it was a very close result.

On Friday, Miles said the by-election was an opportunity for voters in the seat to send a message to Crisafulli’s government.

He said the election result would not change either the government or the Labor Party leadership.