Can Anthony Albanese persuade people to believe him even though promises have been broken on taxes
With five days to go before the federal budget opens, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party are beginning to feel the sting of breaking promises.
It’s a pain Albanese and his team will be feeling for months to come.
Interview with Finance Minister Jim Chalmers on ABC TV insider The Sunday morning show is the latest example of this.
Presenter David Speers repeatedly asked Chalmers whether Labor could impose a tax on gas exports; Some sections of the party hall and the wider left of politics continue to campaign for it.
Chalmers has repeatedly tried to bring the discussion back to what the budget actually is.
And then Speers delivered a killing blow to him.
“That’s the problem, isn’t it, if governments are now changing their positions even though they’ve been ignoring things, that leaves all these different changes exposed?”
Chalmers was visibly disappointed: “I understand that’s the political point our opponents will be making, David. I’d rather focus on the meaningful difference we’re making in people’s lives.”
This federal budget represents the biggest risk of Albanian’s political career, which dates back to 1985 when he worked for the late Tom Uren in the Hawke government and now spans three decades in parliament.
It’s a big gamble to give Opposition Leader Angus Taylor a rhetorical club with which he can attack the government every day from now until the next election, but given his 94 seats in parliament and political capital to burn, Albanians believe it’s worth taking.
Under the tutelage of Tony Abbott, Taylor is well aware of how effective a government can be in the face of broken promises. After all, Abbott used Julia Gillard’s broken carbon tax promise to devastating effect, then promptly forgot his lesson, broke a series of promises in his own first budget and was neutralized by his own party.
If Taylor can frame the debate around broken promises, the Coalition will win the debate – but will not be able to prevent the changes from becoming law because the Greens will support them – and the vast majority of Albanians will take a hit at the next election.
Fellow opposition leader Pauline Hanson has also made clear she opposes the tax changes, but it is unclear how much of the heavy lifting she will be prepared to do to take on Albanese.
After all, it is Hanson who is the beneficiary of Labour’s decline in support, as Resolve Political Monitor’s latest poll shows. At least for now, he can sit back and let Taylor do the heavy lifting.
But there is also some good news for Labor hidden in the details; Good news that points to the possibility that the government can win the day if more people believe they are winners rather than losers, just like the broken promises of phase 3 tax cuts.
Just over a third of voters are undecided and just over 20 percent openly oppose the measures.
As Chalmers made clear on Sunday, Labor was not expecting a boost in the polls from this budget and would be surprised if there was one.
After 41 years in and around politics, Albanese didn’t wake up one morning and recklessly decide it might be fun to break a few promises. This is a calculated gamble.
If the debate centers on broken promises, Taylor will win the public discourse. But Albanese will win the argument if he can frame this budget in a way that makes difficult but necessary decisions to ensure young Australians have a fair go at home buying.
The question that remains is whether Albanese can persuade people to believe in him despite breaking his word.
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James Massola is the chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and Southeast Asia correspondent. He won the Quill and Kennedy awards and was a Walkley finalist. Connect securely to Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect with: X or email.
