Voters across parties believe UK net migration is rising despite sharp drop | Migration

People incorrectly believed net migration was rising in the UK despite figures falling to the lowest level in decades, a leading think tank has found.

British Future’s new research, published ahead of the latest government figures on immigration, has revealed the gap between reality and the public’s perception of net migration; Although the numbers show a sharp decline, a significant portion of the public believes it is increasing.

Net migration fell from 944,000 in March 2023 to 204,000 in June 2025, according to government figures.

The final figures will be published on Thursday morning and are expected to see further declines in net migration.

According to British Future’s research, 67% of people with skeptical views on immigration believe net migration will increase in 2025, compared to 37% of those with more liberal views. It also emerged that six in 10 people who want immigration to be reduced believe the numbers are still increasing. Only 15% of people expect net migration to be lower next year.

Researchers found that people believe that individuals seeking asylum make up 33% of migration, when in reality the figure is about 9%. They also believe that people traveling to the UK to study make up 24 per cent of immigration, when in fact this proportion is just over half.

Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said the difference in perception was shaping not only the immigration debate but also politics more broadly.

“It’s hardly surprising that voters think net migration will increase when the only discussion we’re having is about how to reduce it,” he said. “We need to talk about how to manage the pressures and rewards of immigration to Britain.”

Debates about immigration have become increasingly polarized, especially since the Brexit referendum. A decade later, “stop the boats” rhetoric and numerous promises across the political spectrum to stem the rise in unauthorized crossings of the Channel have shaped attitudes to immigration.

The Guardian’s analysis showed that although net immigration figures have fallen, Labor and Conservative MPs have spoken with increasing hostility about immigration in the past five years, more than at almost any other time in the last century. According to British Future, distrust over immigration is shared by all parties.

In November, home secretary Shabana Mahmood, to whom Labor has proposed changes to settlement and citizenship, acknowledged that net migration had fallen by 69% in the 12 months to June 2025, to the lowest annual figure since 2021, but said: “We are going further because the pace and scale of migration is putting huge pressure on local communities.”

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said in response to the drop: “We need to go much further.” Reform UK, meanwhile, has pledged to achieve “net zero” immigration. The party’s leader, Nigel Farage, falsely claimed that the decline in net migration was largely the result of British immigration, not those from overseas.

Immigration is the third most important issue in public opinion, right after the cost of living and the NHS. Sophie Stowers, research manager at More in Common, believes this misunderstanding is partly down to the fact that pictures and videos of people arriving on small boats and shelter hotels opening in towns have received a more visceral response than the official figures.

“We know that there is not always a clear link between net immigration levels and how the public feels about immigration,” Stowers said. “Net immigration or legal immigration is only part of the story, and ultimately that’s not the story most voters care about.”

British Future used Number Cruncher Politics for research examining a national sample of 3,003 adults in Great Britain at the end of March.

The report said that if current trends continue, all parties “may be looking at a very different migration context” over the next three years as they prepare for the 2029 general election campaign.

Stowers said concerns about immigration and small boats stem from broader issues, including security and stability in an increasingly uncertain world.

“This isn’t even just about immigration anymore; it’s an indicator of whether the system we have is working or not,” he said. “I think that’s why it’s so hard to have these conversations and why just talking about reducing net migration doesn’t shift the dial.”