UK, German and French aid cuts will take ‘devastating toll’ on most vulnerable, says study | Global development

Cuts to foreign aid budgets by the UK, France and Germany could contribute to more than 11.5 million preventable deaths by the end of the decade, according to a new report that warns that Europe is abandoning its role as a pillar of global health and development.

Three separate studies included in the report reveal the extent to which countries have cut their foreign aid budgets and show the impact of this worldwide. According to the research, the UK’s official development assistance (ODA) spending is expected to fall by 45% between 2020 and 2026, Germany’s by 37% between 2023 and 2026, and France’s by 30% over the same period.

“Led by its three largest donors, the continent is moving towards a ‘new normal’ in which international participation is significantly reduced; not as a temporary adjustment, but as a structural realignment,” says the report prepared by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).

Researchers estimate that Britain’s cuts alone could result in 5.1 million additional deaths by 2030, while France’s cuts could lead to 3.5 million and Germany’s almost 2.9 million.

Gonzalo Fanjul, author of the study, said: “Much of the debate focuses on Trump and his administration, but our predictions suggest that Europe’s changing spending priorities will be equally devastating for some of the most vulnerable communities in the world, while also undermining the rules-based order and international solidarity that the UK, France and Germany demand and claim to defend.

“The fact that the Ebola epidemic has now been declared a global health emergency is a stark reminder that a weakened global health system leaves everyone exposed,” he added.

“The priority now must be to reaffirm global health as the public good of a new era in international relations, with predictable and multi-source financing, real multilateral commitment, and the political intelligence to align stated values ​​with real budgets.”

Last month, Britain’s foreign aid spending reached its lowest level in nearly two decades. Of the three countries, the UK’s withdrawal of ODA will have the biggest impact on mortality rates in the 128 low- and middle-income countries included in the study.

Cuts to sexual and reproductive health programs in the UK could result in 1.1 million unwanted pregnancies, 375,000 unsafe abortions and more than 1,000 maternal deaths, according to the report.

The report on Britain’s aid spending said, “Aid cuts of this magnitude are not technical adjustments, but political choices with lasting consequences.”

The report estimates that France’s 30% decline in ODA between 2022 and 2026 could result in more than 447,000 preventable deaths each year. It was also stated that a 60% cut was made specifically for France. Global Fund This could mean that 710,000 deaths from AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria could not be prevented by 2028.

In Germany, the share of aid in gross national income fell from 0.85% in 2022 to 0.67% in 2024 and is expected to fall to 0.52% in 2026, with further declines. The report predicts that a cut of nearly 50 percent in humanitarian aid would leave approximately 4 million people worldwide deprived of food aid.

The findings come as European governments have sharply increased defense spending in response to geopolitical tensions and wars, and after the Trump administration destroyed USAid.

Last year the UK announced aid cuts alongside plans to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP. This rate is planned to increase to 3.5% by 2035, in line with NATO targets. Germany and France are also increasing military spending while reducing their development budgets.

“Development cooperation has long served as a stabilizing tool, strengthening health systems, reducing vulnerability and mitigating drivers of conflict and displacement,” the report said. “Losing weight may ultimately be more costly than maintaining it.”

In a statement made in March Defending the aid cuts, UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper wrote: “Our commitment to international development is as important as ever; it reflects UK values, supports those in conflict and extreme poverty, and is also in the UK’s national interest because, in an interconnected world, crises and instabilities around the world undermine our security and prosperity at home.”

“We are modernizing and evolving our development approach to create the biggest impact abroad and deliver the best value for money for taxpayers at home.”