Star Wars franchise in serious trouble as ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ disappoints in opening box office
Now it’s official, the Star Wars franchise is in serious trouble.
When The Walt Disney Company acquired Lucasfilm in 2012 and hired Kathleen Kennedy, expectations for the future of the series were high. Disney would bring a new trilogy to movie theaters, immediately making plans for separate trilogies, standalone films based on beloved characters, and Disney+ television shows.
The rebooted franchise was later released in theaters. While “The Force Awakens” was a massive hit, each successive film resulted in fewer ticket sales and a smaller audience than the previous one. It culminated in the disastrous “The Rise of Skywalker,” which, although profitable, was widely panned by audiences and many critics.
Some broadcast shows, like “The Acolyte,” were so ridiculously “woke” that they were canceled after one season due to low ratings. Movies like “Solo” were flops, and plans for a future trilogy based on the adventures of young Han Solo were canceled.
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John Boyega, Daisy Ridley and Mark Hamill pose at the ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ photocall held at the Corinthia Hotel London on December 13, 2017. (David M. Benett/Dave Benett/WireImage)
Added to these are “Rogue One” and “Andor” and a few other successes that at first seemed like “The Mandalorian.” The initial popularity of this series was determined by the fact that plans were set in motion for a feature film. However, the show’s second and third seasons lost much of this initial momentum. Still, Disney decided to move forward by also focusing on the “Baby Yoda” character Grogu.
But pre-release tracking wasn’t exactly positive, and with the first box office returns of the long Memorial Day weekend now available, what many have long suspected has been confirmed: Hollywood’s most valuable movie asset is facing major trouble.
Although the Memorial Day holiday will help the four-day gross look better, “The Mandalorian and Grogu” had a Friday-Sunday opening box office of just $81.9 million. This isn’t quite a “debacle”, but it does show how bad things have gone for Disney compared to previous Star Wars movies.
Jon Favreau, director of the upcoming movie “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu,” speaks during the Walt Disney Studios presentation at CinemaCon at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas on April 16, 2026. (Chris Pizzello/AP)
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Considered a major disappointment, “Solo” grossed $84.4 million in its three-day opening weekend around Memorial Day in 2018. Doesn’t sound too bad for “The Mandalorian,” right?
After adjusting for inflation, $84.4 million in 2018 becomes roughly $112 million in today’s dollars. That means “The Mandalorian” earned $30 million less in its opening weekend than the biggest flop in franchise history. A flop so bad that it ended the plans for the entire series.
Similarly, “Solo’s” Memorial Day weekend gross was $103 million, while “The Mandalorian” was expected to make $102 million this year. This is even worse; Adjusted for inflation, $103 million today is $139 million. $37 million was left behind over the long weekend. Not good.
The film’s production budget was estimated at roughly $166 million, but tax credits reportedly reduced the cost somewhat. Marketing efforts expanded and at least another $100 million was added. Given the $266 million cost and the 50/50 revenue split for studios and theaters, the film likely needs to hit somewhere close to $500 million to break even.
International grosses aren’t exactly cause for optimism there either. “Solo” had a domestic total of $84.4 million, as well as an international opening weekend of $65 million. That’s $149.4 million. “The Mandalorian and Grogu” grossed $63 million internationally in its first weekend for $145 million. But again, when adjusted for inflation, “Solo” earned $198 million. That’s a $53 million gap.
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There’s still time, and maybe “The Mandalorian” has the strength to surpass its predecessor. However, based on initial investigations, this seems unlikely. “Solo” finished with under $400 million internationally. If this movie doesn’t clear that hurdle, it will almost certainly lose Disney money at the theatrical box office. For a movie set in the Star Wars universe.
On the one hand, it is a striking result, but on the other hand, it is not surprising at all. Instead of focusing on quality storytelling and planning, Kennedy spent her time making “The Force is women” T-shirts and checking certain casting boxes. After years of telling the core Star Wars fanbase that they didn’t matter anymore, they listened.
Mark Hamill attends the premiere of Disney’s “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” on December 16, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Zengin Anger/Getty Images)
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Kathleen Kennedy is currently at Lucasfilm, but her successor Dave Filoni was heavily involved in this film. And this is shaping up to be another critical and commercial disappointment. Until recently, it seemed impossible for Disney to screw up Star Wars. The boy was very wrong about this.
There are sure to be more movies on the way, and a return to form could steady the ship. But now they’ve lost the benefit of the doubt and unleashed fandom’s most dangerous emotion: apathy.
