UK’s higher-earning immigrants may be driven out by tougher rules, report suggests | Immigration and asylum
The analysis found that higher-income migrants are less likely to stay in the UK long-term and may be further deterred from staying by the government’s planned crackdown on settlement rights.
The Immigration Advisory Committee’s Who Stays, Who Leaves? The report titled: approximately 900,000 trips Between 2014 and 2024.
The research is intended to help understand long-term migration patterns and the potential impacts of policy changes on labor shortages, population projections and public finances.
The MAC report says: “Our analysis shows that lowest-paid migrants are the most likely to stay in the UK in the long term, with some evidence that those earning the highest wages (£125,000+) are the income group most likely to leave.
“These [higher-paid] “Migrants may benefit from greater global opportunities and lower financial barriers to moving elsewhere, which may reduce incentives to stay in the UK longer term.”
Home Affairs Minister Shabana Mahmood is proposing to increase the basic qualification period for UK settled status from five to 10 years.
The proposals say those who meet certain criteria, including high-rate taxpayers, would be eligible for discounts that would reduce the waiting period for indefinite leave to five years.
But the MAC’s report warns that stricter rules could prevent high-income earners from staying in Britain.
The report said: “Evidence on the role of settlement policy in shaping the attractiveness of countries to prospective immigrants is limited, but we can speculate that groups with lower rates of stay under current policy (such as those on higher incomes and those working in higher education) may be more susceptible to being deterred by a less generous settlement offer (or may be more likely to leave if they are already in the UK and are directed to a longer route to settlement).”
The report did not specify the percentage of high-income migrants who left the UK during the period.
Analysis finds Britain is detaining young immigrants. The five-year retention rate for those under 45 was 81%, while it was 65% for those aged 45 and over, who are more likely to establish overseas connections and have “fewer opportunities for job mobility”.
Meanwhile, migrants and health and social care workers earning under £40,000 showed “high commitment to stay”, with 94% of nurses staying after five years.
The lowest stay rates were among “natural and social science professionals,” who were predominantly academics, with only 57% staying after five years. These people are likely driven by “short-term contracts and internationally mobile career paths,” the report said.
People from African and South Asian countries had the highest accommodation rates, while people from North America, Oceania and East Asia had the lowest accommodation rates. London was the region most likely to hold migrants, while Scotland and Wales recorded the lowest stay rates.
Although independent figures are not provided, women were about five percentage points more likely than men to remain in work after five years; This partly reflects the fact that women are more likely to work in health and social care.
Beyond the individual tax contributions made by low-wage immigrants, “wider societal impacts” such as the “wider fiscal impacts of a well-functioning care sector” need to be considered, the report said.
The report added: “The fact that younger workers are more likely to stay than older workers pushes the fiscal contribution upward, as younger workers have more work and tax-paying lives ahead of them.”
